**Trump’s direct statements and the U.S. State Department’s consistent policy position strongly underpin the 90% trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Somaliland before 2027.** In December 2025, shortly after Israel became the first UN member state to recognize Somaliland, President Trump told the New York Post he had “no” plans to follow suit, adding that few Americans even knew what Somaliland was. The administration has since maintained that the United States recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Somalia, which includes Somaliland. A June 2026 State Department report to Congress on engagement with Somaliland explicitly reaffirmed this framework while noting limited practical cooperation. Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi “Irro” has intensified lobbying efforts in Washington, including a September 2026 visit offering port access at Berbera, mineral deals, and potential military cooperation. Support exists from some Republican lawmakers (such as Sen. Ted Cruz and Rep. Scott Perry’s 2025 bill) and pro-Israel advocates, and strategic arguments have grown amid Red Sea tensions. However, these efforts have not altered official policy, and the remaining window before 2027 is short. No congressional action or executive decision has advanced recognition, and the African Union and most states continue to back Somalia’s territorial claims. Traders therefore view formal recognition as unlikely in the near term absent a major, unforeseen shift.