California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under the voter-approved Proposition 50 redistricting plan, now carries a Democratic partisan voting index of roughly D+5, reflecting stronger performance for Democratic candidates in recent presidential cycles. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as a no-party-preference candidate after switching from Republican affiliation, while Democrat Richard Pan secured the second spot amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area composition. Trader pricing at 94.9% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would shift the baseline. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout for Kiley or a significant national political reversal before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$49,908 Wol.
$49,908 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$49,908 Wol.
$49,908 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,535 Wol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,373 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under the voter-approved Proposition 50 redistricting plan, now carries a Democratic partisan voting index of roughly D+5, reflecting stronger performance for Democratic candidates in recent presidential cycles. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as a no-party-preference candidate after switching from Republican affiliation, while Democrat Richard Pan secured the second spot amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area composition. Trader pricing at 94.9% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would shift the baseline. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout for Kiley or a significant national political reversal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Wolumen
$49,908Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under the voter-approved Proposition 50 redistricting plan, now carries a Democratic partisan voting index of roughly D+5, reflecting stronger performance for Democratic candidates in recent presidential cycles. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as a no-party-preference candidate after switching from Republican affiliation, while Democrat Richard Pan secured the second spot amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area composition. Trader pricing at 94.9% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would shift the baseline. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout for Kiley or a significant national political reversal before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$49,908Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district, redrawn under the voter-approved Proposition 50 redistricting plan, now carries a Democratic partisan voting index of roughly D+5, reflecting stronger performance for Democratic candidates in recent presidential cycles. Incumbent Kevin Kiley advanced from the June 2026 top-two primary as a no-party-preference candidate after switching from Republican affiliation, while Democrat Richard Pan secured the second spot amid a split Democratic field. Forecasters rate the seat solid or likely Democratic, consistent with the district's voter registration edge and Sacramento-area composition. Trader pricing at 94.9% for a Democratic winner aligns with these structural factors and the absence of major late-breaking developments that would shift the baseline. A Republican victory would require unusually high independent turnout for Kiley or a significant national political reversal before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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