Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote, outpacing Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent in a district with a D+5 partisan voter index. His established fundraising edge, prior 52.6 percent win in 2024, and the limited strength of the Republican field underpin the 93.5 percent trader consensus. A late scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors and recent ratings make such shifts improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
$27,331 Wol.
$27,331 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
7%
$27,331 Wol.
$27,331 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Jim Costa (D)
$15,163 Wol.
94%
Kyle Kirkland (R)
$12,168 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote, outpacing Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent in a district with a D+5 partisan voter index. His established fundraising edge, prior 52.6 percent win in 2024, and the limited strength of the Republican field underpin the 93.5 percent trader consensus. A late scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors and recent ratings make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Wolumen
$27,331Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote, outpacing Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent in a district with a D+5 partisan voter index. His established fundraising edge, prior 52.6 percent win in 2024, and the limited strength of the Republican field underpin the 93.5 percent trader consensus. A late scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors and recent ratings make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$27,331Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Jim Costa holds a commanding lead in California's 21st congressional district, where the Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race as Likely or Solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Costa advanced from the June 2 top-two primary with roughly 42 percent of the vote, outpacing Republican Kyle Kirkland at 26 percent in a district with a D+5 partisan voter index. His established fundraising edge, prior 52.6 percent win in 2024, and the limited strength of the Republican field underpin the 93.5 percent trader consensus. A late scandal, sharp national Republican surge, or unusually high GOP turnout could narrow the margin, though structural factors and recent ratings make such shifts improbable.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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