**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for additional ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point hike to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded directly to elevated oil, gas, and electricity prices, with staff projections showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and remaining above target into 2027. Recent analyst revisions from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley now incorporate a further December hike to 2.75%, citing stronger-than-expected activity and pass-through risks to core prices. The Survey of Professional Forecasters modal path also peaks at 2.50% around year-end. These factors explain the 64.5% probability on a 25 bps net increase, while downside scenarios remain limited absent rapid geopolitical de-escalation or growth deterioration.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: December 2026
ECB Interest Rates: December 2026
25 bps increase 57%
No change 32%
50+ bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
NOWE
$11,301 Wol.
NOWE
$11,301 Wol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
3%
25 bps decrease
7%
No change
32%
25 bps increase
57%
50+ bps increase
8%
25 bps increase 57%
No change 32%
50+ bps increase 8%
25 bps decrease 6.8%
NOWE
$11,301 Wol.
NOWE
$11,301 Wol.
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$1,334 Wol.
3%
25 bps decrease
$1,124 Wol.
7%
No change
$1,736 Wol.
32%
25 bps increase
$5,855 Wol.
57%
50+ bps increase
$1,253 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for additional ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point hike to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded directly to elevated oil, gas, and electricity prices, with staff projections showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and remaining above target into 2027. Recent analyst revisions from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley now incorporate a further December hike to 2.75%, citing stronger-than-expected activity and pass-through risks to core prices. The Survey of Professional Forecasters modal path also peaks at 2.50% around year-end. These factors explain the 64.5% probability on a 25 bps net increase, while downside scenarios remain limited absent rapid geopolitical de-escalation or growth deterioration.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,301Data zakończenia
Dec 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for additional ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point hike to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded directly to elevated oil, gas, and electricity prices, with staff projections showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and remaining above target into 2027. Recent analyst revisions from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley now incorporate a further December hike to 2.75%, citing stronger-than-expected activity and pass-through risks to core prices. The Survey of Professional Forecasters modal path also peaks at 2.50% around year-end. These factors explain the 64.5% probability on a 25 bps net increase, while downside scenarios remain limited absent rapid geopolitical de-escalation or growth deterioration.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Wolumen
$11,301Data zakończenia
Dec 17, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent energy-driven inflation pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are anchoring trader expectations for additional ECB tightening by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point hike to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded directly to elevated oil, gas, and electricity prices, with staff projections showing headline inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and remaining above target into 2027. Recent analyst revisions from Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley now incorporate a further December hike to 2.75%, citing stronger-than-expected activity and pass-through risks to core prices. The Survey of Professional Forecasters modal path also peaks at 2.50% around year-end. These factors explain the 64.5% probability on a 25 bps net increase, while downside scenarios remain limited absent rapid geopolitical de-escalation or growth deterioration.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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