Elevated inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply shocks have anchored trader sentiment around the 61.5% market-implied probability for "Other" Fed decision sequences through October 2026, ahead of the 38% odds on three consecutive pauses. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid 4.1% May PCE inflation and solid but stable labor market data. Markets now price a higher path for policy than the Fed's June projections, with incoming July-August CPI and payrolls releases plus the September 15-16 meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities toward hikes or reinforce the pause baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)
Other 65%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$732,106 Wol.
$732,106 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
65%
Other 65%
Pause–Pause–Pause 35%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$732,106 Wol.
$732,106 Wol.
Oct 28, 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,513 Wol.
35%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,091 Wol.
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,704 Wol.
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,800 Wol.
<1%
Other
$316,510 Wol.
65%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply shocks have anchored trader sentiment around the 61.5% market-implied probability for "Other" Fed decision sequences through October 2026, ahead of the 38% odds on three consecutive pauses. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid 4.1% May PCE inflation and solid but stable labor market data. Markets now price a higher path for policy than the Fed's June projections, with incoming July-August CPI and payrolls releases plus the September 15-16 meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities toward hikes or reinforce the pause baseline.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Rynek otwarty: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Wolumen
$732,106Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply shocks have anchored trader sentiment around the 61.5% market-implied probability for "Other" Fed decision sequences through October 2026, ahead of the 38% odds on three consecutive pauses. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid 4.1% May PCE inflation and solid but stable labor market data. Markets now price a higher path for policy than the Fed's June projections, with incoming July-August CPI and payrolls releases plus the September 15-16 meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities toward hikes or reinforce the pause baseline.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Wolumen
$732,106Data zakończenia
Oct 28, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation pressures stemming from Middle East supply shocks have anchored trader sentiment around the 61.5% market-implied probability for "Other" Fed decision sequences through October 2026, ahead of the 38% odds on three consecutive pauses. The July 29 FOMC meeting held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% by a 9-3 vote, with three regional presidents dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike amid 4.1% May PCE inflation and solid but stable labor market data. Markets now price a higher path for policy than the Fed's June projections, with incoming July-August CPI and payrolls releases plus the September 15-16 meeting serving as key catalysts that could shift probabilities toward hikes or reinforce the pause baseline.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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