Early fall 2026 conditions across the northern U.S. Midwest and Great Lakes remain well above freezing, with NOAA station data showing average September lows several degrees above historical normals in Chicago, Detroit, and similar markets. Trader focus centers on the timing of the first Arctic air intrusion and associated moisture that could produce measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch per NWS daily reports) at official sites like Chicago O’Hare or Detroit. A strengthening El Niño pattern, per Climate Prediction Center outlooks, tends to favor warmer, drier conditions in the region through late fall, delaying the typical mid-to-late October onset of first snow. Key near-term drivers include upcoming NOAA temperature and precipitation outlooks, jet-stream shifts, and any early cold-front passages that could alter probabilities before November monitoring intensifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
54%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
57%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
73%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
74%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
86%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
65%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
80%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
67%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$7,052 Wol.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
54%

Denver, CO by October 31
60%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
57%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
51%

Boston, MA by November 15
59%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
92%

Chicago, IL by November 15
64%

Denver, CO by November 15
73%

Detroit, MI by November 15
91%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
77%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
31%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
74%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
87%

Boston, MA by November 30
73%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
92%

Chicago, IL by November 30
78%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
29%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
86%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
65%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
42%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
80%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
67%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Rozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Early fall 2026 conditions across the northern U.S. Midwest and Great Lakes remain well above freezing, with NOAA station data showing average September lows several degrees above historical normals in Chicago, Detroit, and similar markets. Trader focus centers on the timing of the first Arctic air intrusion and associated moisture that could produce measurable snowfall (≥0.1 inch per NWS daily reports) at official sites like Chicago O’Hare or Detroit. A strengthening El Niño pattern, per Climate Prediction Center outlooks, tends to favor warmer, drier conditions in the region through late fall, delaying the typical mid-to-late October onset of first snow. Key near-term drivers include upcoming NOAA temperature and precipitation outlooks, jet-stream shifts, and any early cold-front passages that could alter probabilities before November monitoring intensifies.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano


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