Early September 2026 begins with near-even market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in a transitional month where climatological averages hover near 66 events. Weak low-level wind shear and waning instability typically suppress widespread activity, though occasional fronts or Gulf moisture can spark isolated supercells, especially in the South. Official SPC outlooks show only marginal severe risks through mid-month, with limited tornado probabilities so far. Historical variability remains high, as September totals have ranged from single digits to nearly 300, driven by rare tropical cyclone remnants or strong upper-level troughs. Traders weigh the chance of quiet conditions against potential late-month outbreaks, with new model runs and convective outlooks likely to shift sentiment as the period progresses.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
50%
25 - 49
50%
50 - 74
50%
75 - 124
50%
125 or more
50%
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
25 - 49 50%
50 - 74 50%
NOWE
NOWE
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 Wol.
50%
25 - 49
$0 Wol.
50%
50 - 74
$0 Wol.
50%
75 - 124
$0 Wol.
50%
125 or more
$25 Wol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early September 2026 begins with near-even market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in a transitional month where climatological averages hover near 66 events. Weak low-level wind shear and waning instability typically suppress widespread activity, though occasional fronts or Gulf moisture can spark isolated supercells, especially in the South. Official SPC outlooks show only marginal severe risks through mid-month, with limited tornado probabilities so far. Historical variability remains high, as September totals have ranged from single digits to nearly 300, driven by rare tropical cyclone remnants or strong upper-level troughs. Traders weigh the chance of quiet conditions against potential late-month outbreaks, with new model runs and convective outlooks likely to shift sentiment as the period progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Wolumen
$35Data zakończenia
Oct 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Early September 2026 begins with near-even market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in a transitional month where climatological averages hover near 66 events. Weak low-level wind shear and waning instability typically suppress widespread activity, though occasional fronts or Gulf moisture can spark isolated supercells, especially in the South. Official SPC outlooks show only marginal severe risks through mid-month, with limited tornado probabilities so far. Historical variability remains high, as September totals have ranged from single digits to nearly 300, driven by rare tropical cyclone remnants or strong upper-level troughs. Traders weigh the chance of quiet conditions against potential late-month outbreaks, with new model runs and convective outlooks likely to shift sentiment as the period progresses.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Wolumen
$35Data zakończenia
Oct 15, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Early September 2026 begins with near-even market-implied odds across tornado count bins, reflecting substantial uncertainty in a transitional month where climatological averages hover near 66 events. Weak low-level wind shear and waning instability typically suppress widespread activity, though occasional fronts or Gulf moisture can spark isolated supercells, especially in the South. Official SPC outlooks show only marginal severe risks through mid-month, with limited tornado probabilities so far. Historical variability remains high, as September totals have ranged from single digits to nearly 300, driven by rare tropical cyclone remnants or strong upper-level troughs. Traders weigh the chance of quiet conditions against potential late-month outbreaks, with new model runs and convective outlooks likely to shift sentiment as the period progresses.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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