**Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits remains tightly balanced between the 180-199 and 200-219 bins, reflecting modest week-to-week volume recovery amid persistent Red Sea risks and data gaps between AIS-visible and total traffic.** Recent MarineTraffic snapshots showed 269 crossings in one tracked period and roughly 223 AIS transits for 10-16 August, while earlier weeks dipped to 200, placing outcomes near the midpoint as some major carriers resume limited Suez routing. Key swing factors include rising war-risk premiums, selective “dark” transits to evade threats, incremental commitments from lines such as MSC and Maersk, and Houthi strikes that continue to suppress compliant commercial flows while sanctioned or ballast traffic adds volatility. These dynamics underscore how aggregated trader capital prices in both incremental Suez normalization and the risk of renewed disruptions through late August.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 24?
180-199 44%
200-219 43%
160-179 9%
220+ 7%
$18,899 Wol.
$18,899 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
<1%
160-179
9%
180-199
44%
200-219
43%
220+
7%
180-199 44%
200-219 43%
160-179 9%
220+ 7%
$18,899 Wol.
$18,899 Wol.
Aug 30, 2026
<160
$490 Wol.
<1%
160-179
$630 Wol.
9%
180-199
$451 Wol.
44%
200-219
$14,635 Wol.
43%
220+
$2,692 Wol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits remains tightly balanced between the 180-199 and 200-219 bins, reflecting modest week-to-week volume recovery amid persistent Red Sea risks and data gaps between AIS-visible and total traffic.** Recent MarineTraffic snapshots showed 269 crossings in one tracked period and roughly 223 AIS transits for 10-16 August, while earlier weeks dipped to 200, placing outcomes near the midpoint as some major carriers resume limited Suez routing. Key swing factors include rising war-risk premiums, selective “dark” transits to evade threats, incremental commitments from lines such as MSC and Maersk, and Houthi strikes that continue to suppress compliant commercial flows while sanctioned or ballast traffic adds volatility. These dynamics underscore how aggregated trader capital prices in both incremental Suez normalization and the risk of renewed disruptions through late August.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Wolumen
$18,899Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits remains tightly balanced between the 180-199 and 200-219 bins, reflecting modest week-to-week volume recovery amid persistent Red Sea risks and data gaps between AIS-visible and total traffic.** Recent MarineTraffic snapshots showed 269 crossings in one tracked period and roughly 223 AIS transits for 10-16 August, while earlier weeks dipped to 200, placing outcomes near the midpoint as some major carriers resume limited Suez routing. Key swing factors include rising war-risk premiums, selective “dark” transits to evade threats, incremental commitments from lines such as MSC and Maersk, and Houthi strikes that continue to suppress compliant commercial flows while sanctioned or ballast traffic adds volatility. These dynamics underscore how aggregated trader capital prices in both incremental Suez normalization and the risk of renewed disruptions through late August.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 24, 2026, through August 30, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Wolumen
$18,899Data zakończenia
Aug 30, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 3:08 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits remains tightly balanced between the 180-199 and 200-219 bins, reflecting modest week-to-week volume recovery amid persistent Red Sea risks and data gaps between AIS-visible and total traffic.** Recent MarineTraffic snapshots showed 269 crossings in one tracked period and roughly 223 AIS transits for 10-16 August, while earlier weeks dipped to 200, placing outcomes near the midpoint as some major carriers resume limited Suez routing. Key swing factors include rising war-risk premiums, selective “dark” transits to evade threats, incremental commitments from lines such as MSC and Maersk, and Houthi strikes that continue to suppress compliant commercial flows while sanctioned or ballast traffic adds volatility. These dynamics underscore how aggregated trader capital prices in both incremental Suez normalization and the risk of renewed disruptions through late August.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania