Recent military strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its approximately 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpile under rubble and rendering most declared centrifuges inoperable. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to key sites since June 2025, preventing verification of any enrichment activity or material movement, while a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum has yet to produce resumed inspections or stockpile dilution. With Iran's program described as dormant and no confirmed weaponization steps underway, traders assign high probability to no nuclear device before 2027. Shifts could occur if buried material is clandestinely recovered or if stalled diplomacy collapses into renewed escalation.