Elaine Pelino holds a commanding lead in the Rhode Island Republican gubernatorial primary, scheduled for September 9, reflecting trader consensus on her consistent polling advantage and positioning as an outsider candidate. Recent surveys, including a June University of New Hampshire poll and an August Embold Research survey, showed her ahead of party-endorsed rival Aaron Guckian by double-digit margins among likely primary voters, with large undecided shares typical of low-turnout Republican contests in the heavily Democratic state. Guckian secured the state GOP endorsement at the June convention, yet Pelino’s favorability and messaging on spending restraint, education reform, and law enforcement have resonated in available polling. Other declared candidates have withdrawn or failed to qualify, narrowing the field. A late surge in organized party turnout or shifts among undecided voters ahead of early voting, which begins August 20, represent the main factors that could alter the outcome.