The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since induction authority expired in 1973, and no legislation has been enacted or advanced in 2026 to restore conscription powers. Recent developments, including the fiscal 2026 NDAA’s automatic registration requirement effective December 2026 and the Selective Service System’s withdrawal of its related rulemaking, address only database maintenance rather than activation of a draft. Recruiting targets remain on track amid steady defense budgets and policy emphasis on volunteer readiness. Traders’ 96.7% probability for no authorization reflects this structural and political reality. A sudden escalation in a major conflict creating acute manpower shortfalls beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3% szansa
$526,185 Wol.
$526,185 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% szansa
$526,185 Wol.
$526,185 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since induction authority expired in 1973, and no legislation has been enacted or advanced in 2026 to restore conscription powers. Recent developments, including the fiscal 2026 NDAA’s automatic registration requirement effective December 2026 and the Selective Service System’s withdrawal of its related rulemaking, address only database maintenance rather than activation of a draft. Recruiting targets remain on track amid steady defense budgets and policy emphasis on volunteer readiness. Traders’ 96.7% probability for no authorization reflects this structural and political reality. A sudden escalation in a major conflict creating acute manpower shortfalls beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Wolumen
$526,185Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since induction authority expired in 1973, and no legislation has been enacted or advanced in 2026 to restore conscription powers. Recent developments, including the fiscal 2026 NDAA’s automatic registration requirement effective December 2026 and the Selective Service System’s withdrawal of its related rulemaking, address only database maintenance rather than activation of a draft. Recruiting targets remain on track amid steady defense budgets and policy emphasis on volunteer readiness. Traders’ 96.7% probability for no authorization reflects this structural and political reality. A sudden escalation in a major conflict creating acute manpower shortfalls beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$526,185Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military has relied on an all-volunteer force since induction authority expired in 1973, and no legislation has been enacted or advanced in 2026 to restore conscription powers. Recent developments, including the fiscal 2026 NDAA’s automatic registration requirement effective December 2026 and the Selective Service System’s withdrawal of its related rulemaking, address only database maintenance rather than activation of a draft. Recruiting targets remain on track amid steady defense budgets and policy emphasis on volunteer readiness. Traders’ 96.7% probability for no authorization reflects this structural and political reality. A sudden escalation in a major conflict creating acute manpower shortfalls beyond volunteer capacity could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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