The Islamic Republic’s survival through the 2025-2026 protests, brutal crackdown, leadership decapitation in the February 2026 US-Israel strikes, and subsequent six-month war has anchored trader expectations against collapse before 2027. Security forces under IRGC and Basij control demonstrated loyalty with no major defections, enabling rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and tightened internal repression including arrests of protest organizers. Recent flare-ups over the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions pressure have not triggered renewed nationwide unrest, while economic hardship is addressed through official calls for unity and “resistance economy” measures. This track record of institutional resilience and containment shapes the 92.5% implied probability on “No.”
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoTak
8% szansa
$25,352,455 Wol.
$25,352,455 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
Tak
8% szansa
$25,352,455 Wol.
$25,352,455 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic’s survival through the 2025-2026 protests, brutal crackdown, leadership decapitation in the February 2026 US-Israel strikes, and subsequent six-month war has anchored trader expectations against collapse before 2027. Security forces under IRGC and Basij control demonstrated loyalty with no major defections, enabling rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and tightened internal repression including arrests of protest organizers. Recent flare-ups over the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions pressure have not triggered renewed nationwide unrest, while economic hardship is addressed through official calls for unity and “resistance economy” measures. This track record of institutional resilience and containment shapes the 92.5% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
Wolumen
$25,352,455Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Islamic Republic’s survival through the 2025-2026 protests, brutal crackdown, leadership decapitation in the February 2026 US-Israel strikes, and subsequent six-month war has anchored trader expectations against collapse before 2027. Security forces under IRGC and Basij control demonstrated loyalty with no major defections, enabling rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and tightened internal repression including arrests of protest organizers. Recent flare-ups over the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions pressure have not triggered renewed nationwide unrest, while economic hardship is addressed through official calls for unity and “resistance economy” measures. This track record of institutional resilience and containment shapes the 92.5% implied probability on “No.”
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$25,352,455Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic’s survival through the 2025-2026 protests, brutal crackdown, leadership decapitation in the February 2026 US-Israel strikes, and subsequent six-month war has anchored trader expectations against collapse before 2027. Security forces under IRGC and Basij control demonstrated loyalty with no major defections, enabling rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and tightened internal repression including arrests of protest organizers. Recent flare-ups over the Strait of Hormuz and US sanctions pressure have not triggered renewed nationwide unrest, while economic hardship is addressed through official calls for unity and “resistance economy” measures. This track record of institutional resilience and containment shapes the 92.5% implied probability on “No.”
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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