**No** at 73.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt natural bolide through mid-September 2026, combined with the modest remaining window for an event. NASA CNEOS fireball data show only sub-kiloton airbursts this year, consistent with historical patterns where meter-scale impactors produce 5 kt or greater energy releases roughly 0.7–1 time annually on average. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough for such an outcome are on collision trajectories for the rest of 2026, per ongoing Sentry and ESA monitoring. With roughly three months left, Poisson-based expectations place the conditional probability of at least one qualifying airburst in the 20–30% range, supporting the current market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoQueda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Queda de meteoro de 5kt em 2026?
Sim
27% chance
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
27% chance
$314,099 Vol.
$314,099 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** at 73.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt natural bolide through mid-September 2026, combined with the modest remaining window for an event. NASA CNEOS fireball data show only sub-kiloton airbursts this year, consistent with historical patterns where meter-scale impactors produce 5 kt or greater energy releases roughly 0.7–1 time annually on average. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough for such an outcome are on collision trajectories for the rest of 2026, per ongoing Sentry and ESA monitoring. With roughly three months left, Poisson-based expectations place the conditional probability of at least one qualifying airburst in the 20–30% range, supporting the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$314,099Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**No** at 73.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt natural bolide through mid-September 2026, combined with the modest remaining window for an event. NASA CNEOS fireball data show only sub-kiloton airbursts this year, consistent with historical patterns where meter-scale impactors produce 5 kt or greater energy releases roughly 0.7–1 time annually on average. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough for such an outcome are on collision trajectories for the rest of 2026, per ongoing Sentry and ESA monitoring. With roughly three months left, Poisson-based expectations place the conditional probability of at least one qualifying airburst in the 20–30% range, supporting the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$314,099Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**No** at 73.5% reflects the absence of any ≥5 kt natural bolide through mid-September 2026, combined with the modest remaining window for an event. NASA CNEOS fireball data show only sub-kiloton airbursts this year, consistent with historical patterns where meter-scale impactors produce 5 kt or greater energy releases roughly 0.7–1 time annually on average. No catalogued near-Earth objects large enough for such an outcome are on collision trajectories for the rest of 2026, per ongoing Sentry and ESA monitoring. With roughly three months left, Poisson-based expectations place the conditional probability of at least one qualifying airburst in the 20–30% range, supporting the current market-implied odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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