Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá who resigned to run for governor, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, Amapá gubernatorial election, with multiple surveys from July through September showing him at 55–66% against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) in the low 30s. This positioning aligns with the market's 88.5% implied probability for Furlan, driven by consistent first-round majorities in simulated scenarios and his active street-level campaigning across Macapá, Santana, and interior municipalities. Clécio Luís, seeking re-election after winning in 2022, trails amid lower favorability metrics, while minor candidates such as Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley register negligible support. The first-round structure and absence of late momentum shifts for challengers reinforce trader consensus around Furlan's frontrunner status.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoDr. Furlan 88%
Clécio Luís 4.6%
Marcos Reategui 3.9%
Jairo Palheta 2.0%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Dr. Furlan
88%
Clécio Luís
5%
Marcos Reategui
4%
Jairo Palheta
2%
Carlos Cley
<1%
Dr. Furlan 88%
Clécio Luís 4.6%
Marcos Reategui 3.9%
Jairo Palheta 2.0%
NOVO
NOVO
4 out 2026
Dr. Furlan
$8,594 Vol.
88%
Clécio Luís
$330 Vol.
5%
Marcos Reategui
$214 Vol.
4%
Jairo Palheta
$374 Vol.
2%
Carlos Cley
$163 Vol.
<1%
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá who resigned to run for governor, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, Amapá gubernatorial election, with multiple surveys from July through September showing him at 55–66% against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) in the low 30s. This positioning aligns with the market's 88.5% implied probability for Furlan, driven by consistent first-round majorities in simulated scenarios and his active street-level campaigning across Macapá, Santana, and interior municipalities. Clécio Luís, seeking re-election after winning in 2022, trails amid lower favorability metrics, while minor candidates such as Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley register negligible support. The first-round structure and absence of late momentum shifts for challengers reinforce trader consensus around Furlan's frontrunner status.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ET
Volume
$9,676Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá who resigned to run for governor, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, Amapá gubernatorial election, with multiple surveys from July through September showing him at 55–66% against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) in the low 30s. This positioning aligns with the market's 88.5% implied probability for Furlan, driven by consistent first-round majorities in simulated scenarios and his active street-level campaigning across Macapá, Santana, and interior municipalities. Clécio Luís, seeking re-election after winning in 2022, trails amid lower favorability metrics, while minor candidates such as Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley register negligible support. The first-round structure and absence of late momentum shifts for challengers reinforce trader consensus around Furlan's frontrunner status.
The Amapá gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$9,676Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Dr. Furlan (PSD), the former mayor of Macapá who resigned to run for governor, holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the October 4, 2026, Amapá gubernatorial election, with multiple surveys from July through September showing him at 55–66% against incumbent Clécio Luís (União Brasil) in the low 30s. This positioning aligns with the market's 88.5% implied probability for Furlan, driven by consistent first-round majorities in simulated scenarios and his active street-level campaigning across Macapá, Santana, and interior municipalities. Clécio Luís, seeking re-election after winning in 2022, trails amid lower favorability metrics, while minor candidates such as Marcos Reategui, Jairo Palheta, and Carlos Cley register negligible support. The first-round structure and absence of late momentum shifts for challengers reinforce trader consensus around Furlan's frontrunner status.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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