Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe governor race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling from late August and early September consistently shows him leading with 40-46% of stimulated intentions, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) by double-digit margins in most surveys, while Ricardo Marques (PL) and minor candidates trail far behind. Mitidieri benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition including PSD, União, and PT allies, plus presidential-level support. Traders price his victory probability near 90% based on these sustained leads and the structural advantages of the sitting governor in a state with roughly 1.74 million eligible voters. Valmir remains the clearest alternative but has not closed the gap in published surveys.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoFábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
<1%
Dr. Helton
<1%
Ricardo Marques
<1%
Fábio 90%
Valmir de Francisquinho 11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus <1%
Emanuel Cacho <1%
$19,773 Vol.
$19,773 Vol.
4 out 2026
Fábio
$15,659 Vol.
90%
Valmir de Francisquinho
$1,717 Vol.
11%
Taty Cristina de Jesus
$637 Vol.
<1%
Emanuel Cacho
$618 Vol.
<1%
Dr. Helton
$699 Vol.
<1%
Ricardo Marques
$443 Vol.
<1%
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe governor race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling from late August and early September consistently shows him leading with 40-46% of stimulated intentions, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) by double-digit margins in most surveys, while Ricardo Marques (PL) and minor candidates trail far behind. Mitidieri benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition including PSD, União, and PT allies, plus presidential-level support. Traders price his victory probability near 90% based on these sustained leads and the structural advantages of the sitting governor in a state with roughly 1.74 million eligible voters. Valmir remains the clearest alternative but has not closed the gap in published surveys.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ET
Volume
$19,773Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe governor race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling from late August and early September consistently shows him leading with 40-46% of stimulated intentions, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) by double-digit margins in most surveys, while Ricardo Marques (PL) and minor candidates trail far behind. Mitidieri benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition including PSD, União, and PT allies, plus presidential-level support. Traders price his victory probability near 90% based on these sustained leads and the structural advantages of the sitting governor in a state with roughly 1.74 million eligible voters. Valmir remains the clearest alternative but has not closed the gap in published surveys.
The Sergipe gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$19,773Data de Término
4 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:45 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Fábio Mitidieri (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking re-election, holds a commanding position in the Sergipe governor race ahead of the October 4 first round. Recent polling from late August and early September consistently shows him leading with 40-46% of stimulated intentions, ahead of Valmir de Francisquinho (Republicanos) by double-digit margins in most surveys, while Ricardo Marques (PL) and minor candidates trail far behind. Mitidieri benefits from incumbency, a broad coalition including PSD, União, and PT allies, plus presidential-level support. Traders price his victory probability near 90% based on these sustained leads and the structural advantages of the sitting governor in a state with roughly 1.74 million eligible voters. Valmir remains the clearest alternative but has not closed the gap in published surveys.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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