**Traders price a second Clacton by-election in 2026 at only about 10.5% because Nigel Farage successfully re-won the seat in the August 2026 contest he himself triggered and no procedural or political mechanism is currently on track to force another vote before year-end.** Farage resigned in July 2026 amid a parliamentary standards investigation into an undeclared £5m personal gift from donor Christopher Harborne (plus related questions over external support). He framed the ensuing by-election as a direct appeal to voters, won it on 13 August with 63.3% against a field of 34 candidates (including novelty entrant Count Binface on 26.9%), and returned to the Commons. Major parties boycotted the poll, which saw 44.4% turnout. The standards probe, paused during the vacancy, resumed immediately after the result. Under Commons rules, a finding of breach followed by a suspension of 10 or more sitting days would trigger a recall petition; reaching the 10% threshold of registered voters would then force a further by-election. As of mid-September 2026, however, the commissioner’s process remains at an early stage with no published timetable for a report or committee referral. Historical precedents and standard parliamentary timelines make completion, a suspension vote, and a successful recall petition all unlikely to conclude inside the remaining months of 2026. No other resignation, disqualification, or vacancy trigger has emerged. Consequently, the current trader consensus reflects the low near-term probability of the procedural sequence needed for another Clacton by-election this calendar year.