**United Russia enters the September 18–20, 2026 State Duma election as the dominant incumbent party under Russia’s mixed electoral system of 225 party-list and 225 single-member district seats.** State pollsters VCIOM and FOM show the party leading by wide margins, projecting seat totals in the 210–270 range that would secure a constitutional majority above 300 seats, consistent with its 324-seat result in 2021 and current holdings near that level. Independent surveys register lower support amid war fatigue, economic pressures, and a fuel crisis, though systemic opposition parties remain fragmented. Recent developments include finalized candidate lists featuring notable renewals and high-profile figures, party congress emphasis on social programs such as minimum-wage increases and infrastructure, and the exclusion of the anti-war Yabloko party. Kremlin expectations for turnout and vote share have been adjusted downward. The market’s clustering around 310–354 seats reflects trader consensus on United Russia’s structural advantages in single-member districts and administrative resources, tempered by potential variation in turnout mobilization and protest-vote distribution to other parliamentary parties. Official Central Election Commission results will determine resolution, with limited scope for late shifts given the tightly managed process.