The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor das Eleições Gerais de Quebec
Vencedor das Eleições Gerais de Quebec
PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.
4 out 2026
PQ
66%
CAQ
31%
PLQ
5%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
QS
<1%
PQ 66%
CAQ 31%
PLQ 5%
PCQ <1%
$869,525 Vol.
$869,525 Vol.
4 out 2026
PQ
$110,836 Vol.
66%
CAQ
$134,994 Vol.
31%
PLQ
$121,371 Vol.
5%
PCQ
$240,279 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
QS
$104,523 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$869,525Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$869,525Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Quebec general election on October 5, 2026, features a close popular vote race among francophone voters, where the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow lead in recent polling averages near 29% against the CAQ at 24-27%, with the PLQ, PCQ, and QS trailing further behind. Trader consensus favoring a PQ plurality or majority government reflects the party's consistent strength in francophone ridings under the first-past-the-post system, combined with a fragmented federalist vote split among the CAQ, PLQ, and PCQ that limits any single rival's path to the most seats. The CAQ has narrowed the gap since new leader Christine Fréchette took over earlier in 2026 and amid early campaign developments, including voter concerns over U.S. trade tensions, yet structural advantages continue to position the PQ as the frontrunner in seat projections from models like 338Canada.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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