Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-30% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (24%), Liberals (22%), and Conservatives (16%), though a Synopsis poll showed the CAQ closing to within one point. Seat models project the PQ winning a plurality in the low-to-mid 40s with wide ranges reflecting multi-party competition and francophone vote concentration. Traders have priced the sub-50 seat band highest because the party’s efficiency gains since 2022 by-elections remain vulnerable to CAQ regional recovery, Liberal strength on Montreal Island, and potential PCQ inroads near Quebec City, while the PQ’s sovereignty referendum pledge has not consolidated broader support. The campaign’s opening days have introduced volatility without shifting the core outlook for a minority outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado<50 40%
50-54 19%
55-59 15%
65-69 10%
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
<50
40%
50-54
19%
55-59
15%
60-64
9%
65-69
10%
70-74
9%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
<50 40%
50-54 19%
55-59 15%
65-69 10%
NOVO
NOVO
5 out 2026
<50
$1,530 Vol.
40%
50-54
$937 Vol.
19%
55-59
$433 Vol.
15%
60-64
$785 Vol.
9%
65-69
$2,544 Vol.
10%
70-74
$1,706 Vol.
9%
75-79
$956 Vol.
3%
80+
$839 Vol.
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-30% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (24%), Liberals (22%), and Conservatives (16%), though a Synopsis poll showed the CAQ closing to within one point. Seat models project the PQ winning a plurality in the low-to-mid 40s with wide ranges reflecting multi-party competition and francophone vote concentration. Traders have priced the sub-50 seat band highest because the party’s efficiency gains since 2022 by-elections remain vulnerable to CAQ regional recovery, Liberal strength on Montreal Island, and potential PCQ inroads near Quebec City, while the PQ’s sovereignty referendum pledge has not consolidated broader support. The campaign’s opening days have introduced volatility without shifting the core outlook for a minority outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Mercado Aberto: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$9,730Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-30% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (24%), Liberals (22%), and Conservatives (16%), though a Synopsis poll showed the CAQ closing to within one point. Seat models project the PQ winning a plurality in the low-to-mid 40s with wide ranges reflecting multi-party competition and francophone vote concentration. Traders have priced the sub-50 seat band highest because the party’s efficiency gains since 2022 by-elections remain vulnerable to CAQ regional recovery, Liberal strength on Montreal Island, and potential PCQ inroads near Quebec City, while the PQ’s sovereignty referendum pledge has not consolidated broader support. The campaign’s opening days have introduced volatility without shifting the core outlook for a minority outcome.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$9,730Data de Término
5 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place the Parti Québécois at roughly 28-30% support ahead of the October 5 election, ahead of the Coalition Avenir Québec (24%), Liberals (22%), and Conservatives (16%), though a Synopsis poll showed the CAQ closing to within one point. Seat models project the PQ winning a plurality in the low-to-mid 40s with wide ranges reflecting multi-party competition and francophone vote concentration. Traders have priced the sub-50 seat band highest because the party’s efficiency gains since 2022 by-elections remain vulnerable to CAQ regional recovery, Liberal strength on Montreal Island, and potential PCQ inroads near Quebec City, while the PQ’s sovereignty referendum pledge has not consolidated broader support. The campaign’s opening days have introduced volatility without shifting the core outlook for a minority outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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