Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party officials has anchored trader expectations against a coup attempt before the end of 2026. Unverified rumors in early 2026 alleging plots by figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were officially presented as anti-corruption or disciplinary actions, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Ongoing removals, including planned expulsions of more than 40 Central Committee members at the October 2026 plenum, have further depleted potential centers of opposition while Xi maintains direct oversight of the Central Military Commission. This pattern of internal control, combined with the absence of visible challenges amid scheduled leadership transitions ahead of the 2027 congress, underpins the 96.5% implied probability for “No.” Only a major, independently verified escalation involving state actors within the remaining resolution window could alter the current consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
4% chance
$155,420 Vol.
$155,420 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
4% chance
$155,420 Vol.
$155,420 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party officials has anchored trader expectations against a coup attempt before the end of 2026. Unverified rumors in early 2026 alleging plots by figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were officially presented as anti-corruption or disciplinary actions, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Ongoing removals, including planned expulsions of more than 40 Central Committee members at the October 2026 plenum, have further depleted potential centers of opposition while Xi maintains direct oversight of the Central Military Commission. This pattern of internal control, combined with the absence of visible challenges amid scheduled leadership transitions ahead of the 2027 congress, underpins the 96.5% implied probability for “No.” Only a major, independently verified escalation involving state actors within the remaining resolution window could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$155,420Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party officials has anchored trader expectations against a coup attempt before the end of 2026. Unverified rumors in early 2026 alleging plots by figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were officially presented as anti-corruption or disciplinary actions, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Ongoing removals, including planned expulsions of more than 40 Central Committee members at the October 2026 plenum, have further depleted potential centers of opposition while Xi maintains direct oversight of the Central Military Commission. This pattern of internal control, combined with the absence of visible challenges amid scheduled leadership transitions ahead of the 2027 congress, underpins the 96.5% implied probability for “No.” Only a major, independently verified escalation involving state actors within the remaining resolution window could alter the current consensus.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$155,420Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s sustained consolidation of authority through extensive purges of senior People’s Liberation Army and Chinese Communist Party officials has anchored trader expectations against a coup attempt before the end of 2026. Unverified rumors in early 2026 alleging plots by figures such as Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli were officially presented as anti-corruption or disciplinary actions, with no independent reporting confirming coordinated efforts by military or security factions to seize power. Ongoing removals, including planned expulsions of more than 40 Central Committee members at the October 2026 plenum, have further depleted potential centers of opposition while Xi maintains direct oversight of the Central Military Commission. This pattern of internal control, combined with the absence of visible challenges amid scheduled leadership transitions ahead of the 2027 congress, underpins the 96.5% implied probability for “No.” Only a major, independently verified escalation involving state actors within the remaining resolution window could alter the current consensus.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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