Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at +0.3% MoM—versus 0.2% consensus—has anchored trader expectations for September, with the 0.2% outcome holding a 52% implied probability amid moderating shelter and services momentum offset by persistent goods and energy pass-through. Geopolitical energy shocks and the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range underscore upside risks, as reflected in the 26% probability on 0.3%. Market-implied odds price in continued gradual disinflation toward the 2% target, though September’s release in mid-October and intervening labor and PCE data could shift probabilities if core services reaccelerate or goods deflation deepens.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado0,2% 52%
0,3% 26%
0,1% 10%
0,4% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
≤0,0%
5%
0,1%
10%
0,2%
52%
0,3%
26%
0,4%
7%
0,5%
1%
0,6%+
5%
0,2% 52%
0,3% 26%
0,1% 10%
0,4% 7%
NOVO
NOVO
14 out 2026
≤0,0%
$119 Vol.
5%
0,1%
$346 Vol.
10%
0,2%
$2,303 Vol.
52%
0,3%
$1,858 Vol.
26%
0,4%
$55 Vol.
7%
0,5%
$118 Vol.
1%
0,6%+
$162 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at +0.3% MoM—versus 0.2% consensus—has anchored trader expectations for September, with the 0.2% outcome holding a 52% implied probability amid moderating shelter and services momentum offset by persistent goods and energy pass-through. Geopolitical energy shocks and the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range underscore upside risks, as reflected in the 26% probability on 0.3%. Market-implied odds price in continued gradual disinflation toward the 2% target, though September’s release in mid-October and intervening labor and PCE data could shift probabilities if core services reaccelerate or goods deflation deepens.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$4,960Data de Término
15 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at +0.3% MoM—versus 0.2% consensus—has anchored trader expectations for September, with the 0.2% outcome holding a 52% implied probability amid moderating shelter and services momentum offset by persistent goods and energy pass-through. Geopolitical energy shocks and the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range underscore upside risks, as reflected in the 26% probability on 0.3%. Market-implied odds price in continued gradual disinflation toward the 2% target, though September’s release in mid-October and intervening labor and PCE data could shift probabilities if core services reaccelerate or goods deflation deepens.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$4,960Data de Término
15 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent hotter-than-expected August core CPI at +0.3% MoM—versus 0.2% consensus—has anchored trader expectations for September, with the 0.2% outcome holding a 52% implied probability amid moderating shelter and services momentum offset by persistent goods and energy pass-through. Geopolitical energy shocks and the Fed’s September 25-basis-point hike to the 3.75-4.00% target range underscore upside risks, as reflected in the 26% probability on 0.3%. Market-implied odds price in continued gradual disinflation toward the 2% target, though September’s release in mid-October and intervening labor and PCE data could shift probabilities if core services reaccelerate or goods deflation deepens.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
Cuidado com os links externos.
Cuidado com os links externos.
Frequently Asked Questions