**Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are driving trader expectations toward another ECB rate hike by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point increase to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded to headline inflation rising toward 3.3% in August, fueled by elevated oil, gas, and electricity costs amid geopolitical tensions. ECB staff projections released that week show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and peaking near 3.6% in Q4 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, with growth revised upward to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 on stronger-than-expected activity in manufacturing, exports, and defense-related spending. Major banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays have updated forecasts to include a further 25 basis point move in December, citing risks that the energy shock could feed into core inflation and wages. This consensus aligns with the market's 58% probability on a 25 bps increase, while the 29% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will confirm sustained pressures or allow a pause. Lower probabilities on larger moves or cuts underscore the data-dependent approach and the limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in energy markets or growth indicators through year-end remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAumento de 25 pontos-base 58%
Nenhuma alteração 23%
Aumento de 50 pontos base ou mais 5%
Redução de 50+ bps 3.0%
NOVO
$11,639 Vol.
NOVO
$11,639 Vol.
17 dez 2026
Redução de 50+ bps
3%
Redução de 25 pontos base
8%
Nenhuma alteração
25%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
58%
Aumento de 50 pontos base ou mais
5%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base 58%
Nenhuma alteração 23%
Aumento de 50 pontos base ou mais 5%
Redução de 50+ bps 3.0%
NOVO
$11,639 Vol.
NOVO
$11,639 Vol.
17 dez 2026
Redução de 50+ bps
$1,374 Vol.
3%
Redução de 25 pontos base
$1,164 Vol.
8%
Nenhuma alteração
$1,776 Vol.
25%
Aumento de 25 pontos-base
$6,033 Vol.
58%
Aumento de 50 pontos base ou mais
$1,293 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are driving trader expectations toward another ECB rate hike by December 2026.**
The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point increase to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded to headline inflation rising toward 3.3% in August, fueled by elevated oil, gas, and electricity costs amid geopolitical tensions. ECB staff projections released that week show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and peaking near 3.6% in Q4 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, with growth revised upward to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 on stronger-than-expected activity in manufacturing, exports, and defense-related spending.
Major banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays have updated forecasts to include a further 25 basis point move in December, citing risks that the energy shock could feed into core inflation and wages. This consensus aligns with the market's 58% probability on a 25 bps increase, while the 29% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will confirm sustained pressures or allow a pause. Lower probabilities on larger moves or cuts underscore the data-dependent approach and the limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in energy markets or growth indicators through year-end remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$11,639Data de Término
17 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are driving trader expectations toward another ECB rate hike by December 2026.**
The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point increase to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded to headline inflation rising toward 3.3% in August, fueled by elevated oil, gas, and electricity costs amid geopolitical tensions. ECB staff projections released that week show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and peaking near 3.6% in Q4 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, with growth revised upward to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 on stronger-than-expected activity in manufacturing, exports, and defense-related spending.
Major banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays have updated forecasts to include a further 25 basis point move in December, citing risks that the energy shock could feed into core inflation and wages. This consensus aligns with the market's 58% probability on a 25 bps increase, while the 29% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will confirm sustained pressures or allow a pause. Lower probabilities on larger moves or cuts underscore the data-dependent approach and the limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in energy markets or growth indicators through year-end remain the primary near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$11,639Data de Término
17 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict, combined with resilient euro area growth, are driving trader expectations toward another ECB rate hike by December 2026.** The September 10, 2026, 25 basis point increase to a 2.50% deposit facility rate responded to headline inflation rising toward 3.3% in August, fueled by elevated oil, gas, and electricity costs amid geopolitical tensions. ECB staff projections released that week show inflation averaging 3.0% for 2026 and peaking near 3.6% in Q4 before easing toward 2.5% in 2027, with growth revised upward to 0.9% for 2026 and 1.4% for 2027 on stronger-than-expected activity in manufacturing, exports, and defense-related spending. Major banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Barclays have updated forecasts to include a further 25 basis point move in December, citing risks that the energy shock could feed into core inflation and wages. This consensus aligns with the market's 58% probability on a 25 bps increase, while the 29% chance of no change reflects uncertainty over whether incoming data will confirm sustained pressures or allow a pause. Lower probabilities on larger moves or cuts underscore the data-dependent approach and the limited evidence of broad second-round effects so far. Upcoming inflation releases and any shifts in energy markets or growth indicators through year-end remain the primary near-term catalysts.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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