Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida special U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026, reflecting trader consensus around her incumbency advantage, strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising lead exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Florida’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by consistent polling margins of 5–10 points favoring Moody and forecaster ratings of Likely or Solid Republican, underpins the 92% implied probability. Nixon’s Democratic primary upset and recent grassroots efforts, including support from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have not closed the gap amid Moody’s endorsements from business groups and alignment with the state’s electorate. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include major shifts in national conditions, late-breaking developments tied to ongoing controversies like the Hope Florida matter, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key areas, though structural and resource barriers remain significant.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para o Senado da Flórida
Vencedor da eleição para o Senado da Flórida
$112,903 Vol.
$112,903 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
8%
$112,903 Vol.
$112,903 Vol.
Ashley Moody (R)
$56,436 Vol.
92%
Angie Nixon (D)
$56,467 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida special U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026, reflecting trader consensus around her incumbency advantage, strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising lead exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Florida’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by consistent polling margins of 5–10 points favoring Moody and forecaster ratings of Likely or Solid Republican, underpins the 92% implied probability. Nixon’s Democratic primary upset and recent grassroots efforts, including support from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have not closed the gap amid Moody’s endorsements from business groups and alignment with the state’s electorate. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include major shifts in national conditions, late-breaking developments tied to ongoing controversies like the Hope Florida matter, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key areas, though structural and resource barriers remain significant.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ET
Volume
$112,903Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida special U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026, reflecting trader consensus around her incumbency advantage, strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising lead exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Florida’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by consistent polling margins of 5–10 points favoring Moody and forecaster ratings of Likely or Solid Republican, underpins the 92% implied probability. Nixon’s Democratic primary upset and recent grassroots efforts, including support from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have not closed the gap amid Moody’s endorsements from business groups and alignment with the state’s electorate. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include major shifts in national conditions, late-breaking developments tied to ongoing controversies like the Hope Florida matter, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key areas, though structural and resource barriers remain significant.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$112,903Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 4:41 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in the Florida special U.S. Senate election on November 3, 2026, reflecting trader consensus around her incumbency advantage, strong primary performance, and substantial fundraising lead exceeding $11 million compared to Angie Nixon’s under $1 million. Florida’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by consistent polling margins of 5–10 points favoring Moody and forecaster ratings of Likely or Solid Republican, underpins the 92% implied probability. Nixon’s Democratic primary upset and recent grassroots efforts, including support from figures like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, have not closed the gap amid Moody’s endorsements from business groups and alignment with the state’s electorate. Scenarios that could narrow the outcome include major shifts in national conditions, late-breaking developments tied to ongoing controversies like the Hope Florida matter, or unusually high Democratic turnout in key areas, though structural and resource barriers remain significant.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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