Skip to main content

Para negociar nos EUA, acesse polymarket.us

icon for Desastre natural em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Parlays

Desastre natural em 2026?

icon for Desastre natural em 2026?
Clima E Ciência·Parlays

Desastre natural em 2026?

Sim

21% chance
Polymarket

$246,803 Vol.

Sim

21% chance
Polymarket

$246,803 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus favoring “No” at roughly 80% reflects the absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows an unusually quiet Atlantic season with no hurricanes formed by early September, while USGS data confirm the strongest recent quakes reached only 7.7 magnitude. No VEI 6+ eruptions or bolides have been recorded by global networks. These thresholds represent statistically rare extremes relative to long-term baselines, and the remaining calendar window offers limited opportunity for such events to materialize before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,803
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf Trader consensus favoring “No” at roughly 80% reflects the absence through mid-September 2026 of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike. Official monitoring from the National Hurricane Center shows an unusually quiet Atlantic season with no hurricanes formed by early September, while USGS data confirm the strongest recent quakes reached only 7.7 magnitude. No VEI 6+ eruptions or bolides have been recorded by global networks. These thresholds represent statistically rare extremes relative to long-term baselines, and the remaining calendar window offers limited opportunity for such events to materialize before year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:

- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET: - A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US - A major meteor strikes (10kt+) - A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6) - An 8.5+ earthquake occurs Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$246,803
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Relacionado

icon for Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026

Nada Nunca Acontece: 2026

82%
Sim
icon for Haverá 1 terremoto de magnitude 6,5 ou superior no mundo?

Haverá 1 terremoto de magnitude 6,5 ou superior no mundo?

43%
Sim
icon for Grande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?

Grande impacto de meteoro (10kt+) em 2026?

9%
Sim

Cuidado com os links externos.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Desastre natural em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 21%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 21¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Desastre natural em 2026?" has generated $246.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 31, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Desastre natural em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Desastre natural em 2026?" is "Desastre natural em 2026?" at 21%, meaning the market assigns a 21% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Desastre natural em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.