**Elon Musk’s recent X posts on September 11 and 14 have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the next Grok 4.7+ release.** After repeated delays from earlier targets, Musk cited reinforcement-learning adjustments that shortened responses too aggressively, causing the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. This pushed the expected 4.7 rollout past its mid-September window while he simultaneously outlined a 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 on the new C++ stack finishing training that week. A September 17 report of a “grok-4.7” model ID appearing in Google Cloud quotas added fresh speculation of an imminent drop, aligning with the market’s heaviest implied probability on the 17th and 18th. Traders appear to weigh xAI’s rapid cadence and Musk’s direct updates against the lack of any official xAI confirmation, API listing, or benchmark card, leaving room for further slippage if multimodal fixes or RL tuning extend.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoPróximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
Próximo Modelo Grok (4.7+) lançado em...?
17 de setembro 40.3%
23 de setembro 28.1%
29 de setembro 17.2%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro 16.8%
$13,449 Vol.
$13,449 Vol.
17 set 2026
17 de setembro
40%
18 de setembro
38%
19 de setembro
21%
20 de setembro
10%
21 de setembro
16%
22 de setembro
17%
23 de setembro
28%
24 de setembro
18%
25 de setembro
1%
26 de setembro
1%
27 de setembro
1%
28 de setembro
4%
29 de setembro
17%
30 de setembro
<1%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
17%
17 de setembro 40.3%
23 de setembro 28.1%
29 de setembro 17.2%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro 16.8%
$13,449 Vol.
$13,449 Vol.
17 set 2026
17 de setembro
$321 Vol.
40%
18 de setembro
$489 Vol.
38%
19 de setembro
$798 Vol.
21%
20 de setembro
$768 Vol.
10%
21 de setembro
$572 Vol.
16%
22 de setembro
$524 Vol.
17%
23 de setembro
$668 Vol.
28%
24 de setembro
$518 Vol.
18%
25 de setembro
$824 Vol.
1%
26 de setembro
$579 Vol.
1%
27 de setembro
$686 Vol.
1%
28 de setembro
$466 Vol.
4%
29 de setembro
$552 Vol.
17%
30 de setembro
$712 Vol.
<1%
Nenhum lançamento até 30 de setembro
$606 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Elon Musk’s recent X posts on September 11 and 14 have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the next Grok 4.7+ release.** After repeated delays from earlier targets, Musk cited reinforcement-learning adjustments that shortened responses too aggressively, causing the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. This pushed the expected 4.7 rollout past its mid-September window while he simultaneously outlined a 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 on the new C++ stack finishing training that week. A September 17 report of a “grok-4.7” model ID appearing in Google Cloud quotas added fresh speculation of an imminent drop, aligning with the market’s heaviest implied probability on the 17th and 18th. Traders appear to weigh xAI’s rapid cadence and Musk’s direct updates against the lack of any official xAI confirmation, API listing, or benchmark card, leaving room for further slippage if multimodal fixes or RL tuning extend.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$13,449Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Elon Musk’s recent X posts on September 11 and 14 have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the next Grok 4.7+ release.** After repeated delays from earlier targets, Musk cited reinforcement-learning adjustments that shortened responses too aggressively, causing the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. This pushed the expected 4.7 rollout past its mid-September window while he simultaneously outlined a 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 on the new C++ stack finishing training that week. A September 17 report of a “grok-4.7” model ID appearing in Google Cloud quotas added fresh speculation of an imminent drop, aligning with the market’s heaviest implied probability on the 17th and 18th. Traders appear to weigh xAI’s rapid cadence and Musk’s direct updates against the lack of any official xAI confirmation, API listing, or benchmark card, leaving room for further slippage if multimodal fixes or RL tuning extend.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$13,449Data de Término
30 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Elon Musk’s recent X posts on September 11 and 14 have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment for the next Grok 4.7+ release.** After repeated delays from earlier targets, Musk cited reinforcement-learning adjustments that shortened responses too aggressively, causing the model to abandon hard tasks prematurely. This pushed the expected 4.7 rollout past its mid-September window while he simultaneously outlined a 2.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.8 on the new C++ stack finishing training that week. A September 17 report of a “grok-4.7” model ID appearing in Google Cloud quotas added fresh speculation of an imminent drop, aligning with the market’s heaviest implied probability on the 17th and 18th. Traders appear to weigh xAI’s rapid cadence and Musk’s direct updates against the lack of any official xAI confirmation, API listing, or benchmark card, leaving room for further slippage if multimodal fixes or RL tuning extend.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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