Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th Congressional District after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following his February swearing-in after a special election victory. The newly redrawn Houston-area district remains a safely Democratic seat with a strong history of 75%+ support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Ronald Whitfield, the Republican primary winner, faces structural disadvantages in a constituency that is majority Black and Hispanic with high Democratic turnout patterns. Traders have priced Menefee at 96.6% implied probability due to incumbency, unified party backing, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado$16,180 Vol.
$16,180 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Christian Menefee (D)
97%
Ronald Whitfield (R)
3%
$16,180 Vol.
$16,180 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Christian Menefee (D)
$14,471 Vol.
97%
Ronald Whitfield (R)
$1,709 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th Congressional District after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following his February swearing-in after a special election victory. The newly redrawn Houston-area district remains a safely Democratic seat with a strong history of 75%+ support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Ronald Whitfield, the Republican primary winner, faces structural disadvantages in a constituency that is majority Black and Hispanic with high Democratic turnout patterns. Traders have priced Menefee at 96.6% implied probability due to incumbency, unified party backing, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado Aberto: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$16,180Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th Congressional District after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following his February swearing-in after a special election victory. The newly redrawn Houston-area district remains a safely Democratic seat with a strong history of 75%+ support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Ronald Whitfield, the Republican primary winner, faces structural disadvantages in a constituency that is majority Black and Hispanic with high Democratic turnout patterns. Traders have priced Menefee at 96.6% implied probability due to incumbency, unified party backing, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$16,180Data de Término
4 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Christian Menefee secured the Democratic nomination for Texas’s 18th Congressional District after defeating longtime incumbent Al Green in the May 2026 primary runoff, following his February swearing-in after a special election victory. The newly redrawn Houston-area district remains a safely Democratic seat with a strong history of 75%+ support for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Ronald Whitfield, the Republican primary winner, faces structural disadvantages in a constituency that is majority Black and Hispanic with high Democratic turnout patterns. Traders have priced Menefee at 96.6% implied probability due to incumbency, unified party backing, and the absence of competitive Republican infrastructure or polling momentum. A late scandal, health event, or unprecedented national Republican surge would be required to alter the outcome before the November 3 general election.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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