Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting alternatives to accession in recent public statements. Recent NATO summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering, have focused on long-term military aid pledges exceeding €70 billion without extending an invitation or altering the membership path blocked by alliance consensus requirements. No formal negotiations have produced a neutrality pledge or agreement barring accession, despite Russian demands in any potential peace framework. Trader consensus at near-certainty levels for the negative outcome reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of last-minute diplomatic movement by the August 31 deadline, though sudden breakthroughs in security guarantee talks or major escalations could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSim
<1% chance
$30,191 Vol.
$30,191 Vol.
31 ago 2026
Sim
<1% chance
$30,191 Vol.
$30,191 Vol.
31 ago 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting alternatives to accession in recent public statements. Recent NATO summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering, have focused on long-term military aid pledges exceeding €70 billion without extending an invitation or altering the membership path blocked by alliance consensus requirements. No formal negotiations have produced a neutrality pledge or agreement barring accession, despite Russian demands in any potential peace framework. Trader consensus at near-certainty levels for the negative outcome reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of last-minute diplomatic movement by the August 31 deadline, though sudden breakthroughs in security guarantee talks or major escalations could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Mercado Aberto: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$30,191Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting alternatives to accession in recent public statements. Recent NATO summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering, have focused on long-term military aid pledges exceeding €70 billion without extending an invitation or altering the membership path blocked by alliance consensus requirements. No formal negotiations have produced a neutrality pledge or agreement barring accession, despite Russian demands in any potential peace framework. Trader consensus at near-certainty levels for the negative outcome reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of last-minute diplomatic movement by the August 31 deadline, though sudden breakthroughs in security guarantee talks or major escalations could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Volume
$30,191Data de Término
1 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine maintains its constitutional commitment to NATO membership as a core strategic objective, with President Zelenskyy explicitly rejecting alternatives to accession in recent public statements. Recent NATO summits, including the July 2026 Ankara gathering, have focused on long-term military aid pledges exceeding €70 billion without extending an invitation or altering the membership path blocked by alliance consensus requirements. No formal negotiations have produced a neutrality pledge or agreement barring accession, despite Russian demands in any potential peace framework. Trader consensus at near-certainty levels for the negative outcome reflects these entrenched positions and the absence of last-minute diplomatic movement by the August 31 deadline, though sudden breakthroughs in security guarantee talks or major escalations could theoretically prompt shifts before resolution.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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