NOAA’s August 2026 update forecasts a below-normal Atlantic season, citing established El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and limit intensification, with only a 0–2 range for major hurricanes (Category 3+) and a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just a handful of weak tropical storms and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, well below historical norms. Category 4 landfalls on the U.S. coast are climatologically infrequent even in active seasons, and current steering patterns plus suppressed genesis further reduce odds for the remainder of 2026. Forecasters note that while one intense storm could still develop, model consensus and ongoing Pacific warming strongly support the market’s elevated “No” probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoAlgum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Algum furacão de categoria 4 chegará aos EUA antes de 2027?
Sim
15% chance
$341,038 Vol.
$341,038 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
15% chance
$341,038 Vol.
$341,038 Vol.
31 dez 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update forecasts a below-normal Atlantic season, citing established El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and limit intensification, with only a 0–2 range for major hurricanes (Category 3+) and a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just a handful of weak tropical storms and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, well below historical norms. Category 4 landfalls on the U.S. coast are climatologically infrequent even in active seasons, and current steering patterns plus suppressed genesis further reduce odds for the remainder of 2026. Forecasters note that while one intense storm could still develop, model consensus and ongoing Pacific warming strongly support the market’s elevated “No” probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Mercado Aberto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$341,038Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s August 2026 update forecasts a below-normal Atlantic season, citing established El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and limit intensification, with only a 0–2 range for major hurricanes (Category 3+) and a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just a handful of weak tropical storms and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, well below historical norms. Category 4 landfalls on the U.S. coast are climatologically infrequent even in active seasons, and current steering patterns plus suppressed genesis further reduce odds for the remainder of 2026. Forecasters note that while one intense storm could still develop, model consensus and ongoing Pacific warming strongly support the market’s elevated “No” probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$341,038Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s August 2026 update forecasts a below-normal Atlantic season, citing established El Niño conditions that elevate wind shear and limit intensification, with only a 0–2 range for major hurricanes (Category 3+) and a 75% probability of below-average activity overall. As of late August, the basin has produced just a handful of weak tropical storms and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, well below historical norms. Category 4 landfalls on the U.S. coast are climatologically infrequent even in active seasons, and current steering patterns plus suppressed genesis further reduce odds for the remainder of 2026. Forecasters note that while one intense storm could still develop, model consensus and ongoing Pacific warming strongly support the market’s elevated “No” probability.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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