A very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already near +2.7 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver lifting trader-implied odds for September’s global temperature anomaly. The event’s influence on global means typically lags by 4–5 months, so September 2026 is receiving only partial warming from recent Pacific heat while riding an elevated baseline trend from prior years. Official analyses show the month running near +0.96 °C so far, consistent with a warmest-September outcome but still within forecast ranges that allow for substantial month-to-month variability from atmospheric circulation and regional extremes. Model ensembles exhibit wide spreads in exact September values, and the market’s evenly matched bins around 1.3–1.5 °C reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoSetembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
Setembro de 2026 Aumento de temperatura (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
NOVO
NOVO
9 out 2026
<1,30ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Vol.
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already near +2.7 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver lifting trader-implied odds for September’s global temperature anomaly. The event’s influence on global means typically lags by 4–5 months, so September 2026 is receiving only partial warming from recent Pacific heat while riding an elevated baseline trend from prior years. Official analyses show the month running near +0.96 °C so far, consistent with a warmest-September outcome but still within forecast ranges that allow for substantial month-to-month variability from atmospheric circulation and regional extremes. Model ensembles exhibit wide spreads in exact September values, and the market’s evenly matched bins around 1.3–1.5 °C reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Mercado Aberto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already near +2.7 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver lifting trader-implied odds for September’s global temperature anomaly. The event’s influence on global means typically lags by 4–5 months, so September 2026 is receiving only partial warming from recent Pacific heat while riding an elevated baseline trend from prior years. Official analyses show the month running near +0.96 °C so far, consistent with a warmest-September outcome but still within forecast ranges that allow for substantial month-to-month variability from atmospheric circulation and regional extremes. Model ensembles exhibit wide spreads in exact September values, and the market’s evenly matched bins around 1.3–1.5 °C reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational releases.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Volume
$0Data de Término
10 out 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETFonte de resolução
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtResolver
0x69c47De9D...A very strong El Niño, with Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already near +2.7 °C and models projecting a record peak near +3.5–4.0 °C by late 2026, is the dominant driver lifting trader-implied odds for September’s global temperature anomaly. The event’s influence on global means typically lags by 4–5 months, so September 2026 is receiving only partial warming from recent Pacific heat while riding an elevated baseline trend from prior years. Official analyses show the month running near +0.96 °C so far, consistent with a warmest-September outcome but still within forecast ranges that allow for substantial month-to-month variability from atmospheric circulation and regional extremes. Model ensembles exhibit wide spreads in exact September values, and the market’s evenly matched bins around 1.3–1.5 °C reflect this genuine uncertainty ahead of final observational releases.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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