Mary Peltola leads the Alaska Senate race in trader pricing following her 49.5% finish in the August 2026 top-four primary, ahead of incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan at 41.4%. Her fundraising advantage, name recognition as the state's first Alaska Native in Congress, and emphasis on fisheries, rural health costs, and local priorities have positioned her strongly in a state with independent voters and ranked-choice voting. Sullivan's consistent support for Trump administration policies, including spending cuts affecting Alaska, has drawn scrutiny in recent polling that shows a narrow contest. Minor candidates including another Republican named Dan Sullivan remain on the November 3 ballot but register negligible support, leaving the outcome driven by the main matchup and any late shifts in turnout or preferences under RCV.