Strong El Niño conditions, now classified as very strong or super with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.7°C, have amplified the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to drive August 2026 global surface temperatures firmly into the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial baselines. Official monitoring from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth confirms record or near-record warmth, including peak daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C in late August and consistent monthly anomalies near 1.5–1.65°C in preliminary analyses, aligning with model consensus and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Trader positioning reflects this data convergence and the low likelihood of major revisions before final reporting. Unlikely shifts could arise from substantial downward adjustments in post-processed datasets or unforeseen aerosol effects, though current observations make such outcomes improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоАвгуст 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
Август 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC) (БОЛЕЕ ВЫСОКИЕ УДАРЫ)
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Объем
$20,711 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
1%
>1.45ºC
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC 99.0%
1.42–1.45ºC 1.3%
1.34–1.37ºC <1%
>1.45ºC <1%
$20,711 Объем
$20,711 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
<1.30ºC
$657 Объем
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,462 Объем
<1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$3,134 Объем
<1%
1.38–1.41ºC
$4,676 Объем
99%
1.42–1.45ºC
$9,252 Объем
1%
>1.45ºC
$1,531 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, now classified as very strong or super with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.7°C, have amplified the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to drive August 2026 global surface temperatures firmly into the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial baselines. Official monitoring from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth confirms record or near-record warmth, including peak daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C in late August and consistent monthly anomalies near 1.5–1.65°C in preliminary analyses, aligning with model consensus and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Trader positioning reflects this data convergence and the low likelihood of major revisions before final reporting. Unlikely shifts could arise from substantial downward adjustments in post-processed datasets or unforeseen aerosol effects, though current observations make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
Объем
$20,711Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions, now classified as very strong or super with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.7°C, have amplified the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to drive August 2026 global surface temperatures firmly into the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial baselines. Official monitoring from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth confirms record or near-record warmth, including peak daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C in late August and consistent monthly anomalies near 1.5–1.65°C in preliminary analyses, aligning with model consensus and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Trader positioning reflects this data convergence and the low likelihood of major revisions before final reporting. Unlikely shifts could arise from substantial downward adjustments in post-processed datasets or unforeseen aerosol effects, though current observations make such outcomes improbable.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$20,711Дата окончания
1 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions, now classified as very strong or super with Niño 3.4 indices exceeding +2.7°C, have amplified the long-term anthropogenic warming trend to drive August 2026 global surface temperatures firmly into the 1.38–1.41°C anomaly range above pre-industrial baselines. Official monitoring from Copernicus ERA5, NOAA, and Berkeley Earth confirms record or near-record warmth, including peak daily sea-surface temperatures of 21.1°C in late August and consistent monthly anomalies near 1.5–1.65°C in preliminary analyses, aligning with model consensus and historical El Niño amplification patterns. Trader positioning reflects this data convergence and the low likelihood of major revisions before final reporting. Unlikely shifts could arise from substantial downward adjustments in post-processed datasets or unforeseen aerosol effects, though current observations make such outcomes improbable.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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