A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Сентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already reaching +1.8–2.6°C in late August 2026 and forecasts for a very strong or historic peak later in the year, serves as the dominant driver elevating September global mean surface temperature anomalies. Official monitoring from NOAA and multi-model ensembles shows El Niño conditions intensifying rapidly since spring, superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming, with 2026 year-to-date anomalies near 1.47°C and August projections around 1.64°C. This dynamic creates genuine uncertainty in the precise monthly value, balancing trader consensus across the 1.30–1.49°C+ ranges as models and observations converge on the El Niño contribution versus natural variability. New September data releases from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will refine these market-implied odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы