Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin trader positioning around 2.0–2.5% GDP growth for 2026. The September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections placed the median Q4/Q4 forecast at 2.3%, with the central tendency at 2.2–2.4%, reflecting solid underlying demand. Second-quarter real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, as consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset softer government outlays and a wider trade deficit. Private forecasts from U.S. Bank and others cluster near 2.1–2.2%, citing resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and productivity gains. The next Q3 GDP release on September 30 and the December FOMC meeting could refine these implied probabilities amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено2,0–2,5% 61%
>2,5% 25.3%
1,5–2,0% 12.2%
1,0–1,5% 4.3%
$72,073 Объем
$72,073 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
3%
0,5–1,0%
2%
1,0–1,5%
4%
1,5–2,0%
12%
2,0–2,5%
61%
>2,5%
25%
2,0–2,5% 61%
>2,5% 25.3%
1,5–2,0% 12.2%
1,0–1,5% 4.3%
$72,073 Объем
$72,073 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
<0,5%
$8,115 Объем
3%
0,5–1,0%
$17,725 Объем
2%
1,0–1,5%
$4,384 Объем
4%
1,5–2,0%
$8,668 Объем
12%
2,0–2,5%
$14,236 Объем
61%
>2,5%
$18,944 Объем
25%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin trader positioning around 2.0–2.5% GDP growth for 2026. The September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections placed the median Q4/Q4 forecast at 2.3%, with the central tendency at 2.2–2.4%, reflecting solid underlying demand. Second-quarter real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, as consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset softer government outlays and a wider trade deficit. Private forecasts from U.S. Bank and others cluster near 2.1–2.2%, citing resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and productivity gains. The next Q3 GDP release on September 30 and the December FOMC meeting could refine these implied probabilities amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Объем
$72,073Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin trader positioning around 2.0–2.5% GDP growth for 2026. The September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections placed the median Q4/Q4 forecast at 2.3%, with the central tendency at 2.2–2.4%, reflecting solid underlying demand. Second-quarter real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, as consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset softer government outlays and a wider trade deficit. Private forecasts from U.S. Bank and others cluster near 2.1–2.2%, citing resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and productivity gains. The next Q3 GDP release on September 30 and the December FOMC meeting could refine these implied probabilities amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$72,073Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve projections underpin trader positioning around 2.0–2.5% GDP growth for 2026. The September 16 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections placed the median Q4/Q4 forecast at 2.3%, with the central tendency at 2.2–2.4%, reflecting solid underlying demand. Second-quarter real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, as consumer spending and AI-driven business investment offset softer government outlays and a wider trade deficit. Private forecasts from U.S. Bank and others cluster near 2.1–2.2%, citing resilient labor markets with unemployment near 4.1–4.3% and productivity gains. The next Q3 GDP release on September 30 and the December FOMC meeting could refine these implied probabilities amid ongoing geopolitical and inflation uncertainties.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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