Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli strikes that also wounded the successor. He has made no public appearances since, with officials attributing the absence to security risks and recovery while describing decision-making as continuing through written statements and limited inner-circle contact. A temporary leadership council and expanded roles for the IRGC, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and other institutions have managed daily affairs amid the ongoing conflict and economic pressures. Constitutional processes allow the Assembly of Experts to select a successor in the event of vacancy, resignation, or incapacity, though no such trigger has materialized. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime's demonstrated continuity through institutional networks despite persistent questions over Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,440,829 Объем
31 августа
<1%
30 сентября
3%
31 октября
7%
30 ноября
11%
31 декабря
17%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
$24,440,829 Объем
31 августа
<1%
30 сентября
3%
31 октября
7%
30 ноября
11%
31 декабря
17%
30 июня 2027 года
26%
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Iran's supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role in March 2026 following the February assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in U.S.-Israeli strikes that also wounded the successor. He has made no public appearances since, with officials attributing the absence to security risks and recovery while describing decision-making as continuing through written statements and limited inner-circle contact. A temporary leadership council and expanded roles for the IRGC, President Masoud Pezeshkian, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, and other institutions have managed daily affairs amid the ongoing conflict and economic pressures. Constitutional processes allow the Assembly of Experts to select a successor in the event of vacancy, resignation, or incapacity, though no such trigger has materialized. Trader assessments of near-term leadership change reflect the regime's demonstrated continuity through institutional networks despite persistent questions over Mojtaba Khamenei's health and visibility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено



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