Mojtaba Khamenei has issued only written statements since succeeding his father as Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s death in a February 28, 2026 US-Israeli strike, with no verified public appearances, videos, or audio recordings. He was absent from the July state funeral attended by millions and other major events, prompting speculation over injuries reportedly sustained in the same attack, security risks amid ongoing conflict, and a possible shift toward collective or intermediary-led decision-making. Iranian state media released undated clips in March and early September 2026 purporting to show him in good health, but these lack independent confirmation and have not resolved questions about his condition or willingness to appear. Traders monitor regime statements, religious or mourning ceremonies, and any verified footage or live events within resolution windows, as continued seclusion or new health-related disclosures could influence implied probabilities.