The closure of the Justice Department’s criminal probe into Jerome Powell in April 2026, following a federal judge’s March ruling that no evidence supported charges related to his congressional testimony on Federal Reserve headquarters renovations, underpins the 97% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. With the investigation referred to the Fed’s inspector general and no active cases or credible allegations outstanding as of mid-September 2026, traders price in the Fed chair’s institutional safeguards, fixed term as governor through 2028, and historical precedent that policy disputes have never produced prosecutions. While tail risks such as an unprecedented executive restart of proceedings remain theoretically possible, judicial oversight and lack of evidentiary basis render them remote in current conditions.