**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–Пауза–Пауза 27%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 19%
Пауза–повышение–пауза 13.3%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 13%
$11,622 Объем
$11,622 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
13%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
19%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
5%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
27%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
11%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
13%
Другое
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза 27%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза 19%
Пауза–повышение–пауза 13.3%
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение 13%
$11,622 Объем
$11,622 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Повышение–Пауза–Повышение
$314 Объем
13%
Повышение–Пауза–Пауза
$479 Объем
19%
Повышение — Повышение — Повышение
$216 Объем
5%
Повышение–повышение–пауза
$398 Объем
7%
Пауза–Пауза–Повышение
$253 Объем
13%
Пауза–Пауза–Пауза
$9,140 Объем
27%
Пауза–повышение–повышение
$237 Объем
11%
Пауза–повышение–пауза
$336 Объем
13%
Другое
$249 Объем
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Объем
$11,622Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$11,622Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Elevated inflation and a hawkish policy shift under Chair Kevin Warsh are the dominant forces shaping trader views on the Fed’s September, October, and December decisions.** With the target range steady at 3.50–3.75% and July PCE near 3.7%, markets price a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting, which also includes updated economic projections. This produces closely contested probabilities across sequences such as Pause–Pause–Pause (27%) and Hike–Pause–Pause (19%), reflecting uncertainty over whether incoming labor-market and price data will sustain the restrictive stance or allow a later pause. Recent minutes and broker forecasts highlight risks of multiple hikes if inflation remains broad-based, while the removal of forward guidance increases reliance on high-frequency indicators ahead of the next three meetings.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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