Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, followed by repeated direct engagement and public praise from the president, anchors the 96.7% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur. Warsh’s tenure has coincided with Supreme Court rulings that raised the legal threshold for removing sitting Fed governors for cause while preserving central-bank independence, reducing the practical scope for dismissal even amid ongoing rate disagreements. Recent economic data showing persistent inflation above target and market pricing for potential September tightening have prompted Trump to criticize other board members rather than Warsh himself. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt policy clash if Warsh signals further hikes or if fresh allegations surface, though no such developments have materialized through late August.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3% вероятность
$11,965 Объем
$11,965 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
3% вероятность
$11,965 Объем
$11,965 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, followed by repeated direct engagement and public praise from the president, anchors the 96.7% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur. Warsh’s tenure has coincided with Supreme Court rulings that raised the legal threshold for removing sitting Fed governors for cause while preserving central-bank independence, reducing the practical scope for dismissal even amid ongoing rate disagreements. Recent economic data showing persistent inflation above target and market pricing for potential September tightening have prompted Trump to criticize other board members rather than Warsh himself. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt policy clash if Warsh signals further hikes or if fresh allegations surface, though no such developments have materialized through late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
Объем
$11,965Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, followed by repeated direct engagement and public praise from the president, anchors the 96.7% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur. Warsh’s tenure has coincided with Supreme Court rulings that raised the legal threshold for removing sitting Fed governors for cause while preserving central-bank independence, reducing the practical scope for dismissal even amid ongoing rate disagreements. Recent economic data showing persistent inflation above target and market pricing for potential September tightening have prompted Trump to criticize other board members rather than Warsh himself. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt policy clash if Warsh signals further hikes or if fresh allegations surface, though no such developments have materialized through late August.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$11,965Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Trump’s appointment of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair in May 2026, followed by repeated direct engagement and public praise from the president, anchors the 96.7% market-implied probability that no firing attempt will occur. Warsh’s tenure has coincided with Supreme Court rulings that raised the legal threshold for removing sitting Fed governors for cause while preserving central-bank independence, reducing the practical scope for dismissal even amid ongoing rate disagreements. Recent economic data showing persistent inflation above target and market pricing for potential September tightening have prompted Trump to criticize other board members rather than Warsh himself. Tail risks remain limited to an abrupt policy clash if Warsh signals further hikes or if fresh allegations surface, though no such developments have materialized through late August.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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