Elevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 Объем
$815,312 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
56%
Other 56%
Pause–Pause–Pause 43%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$815,312 Объем
$815,312 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$314,218 Объем
43%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$95,060 Объем
1%
Other
$350,158 Объем
56%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$815,312Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$815,312Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation, running at 4.1% headline PCE and 3.4% core through mid-2026 amid energy shocks from Middle East tensions, combined with a stable labor market at 4.2% unemployment, has anchored the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75% through the June and July FOMC meetings under Chair Kevin Warsh. This backdrop drives the 56% market-implied probability on "Other" outcomes, reflecting trader pricing of potential September tightening given hawkish dissents and revised SEP projections showing a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for year-end. The 42% odds on Pause–Pause–Pause capture the Fed’s data-dependent patience and recent softening in hike expectations, while the sub-1% probability on any cut sequence underscores limited scope for easing before sustained disinflation materializes ahead of the September 15-16 decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы