President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities at their test sites, remains the central driver of market attention. Subsequent administration statements, including from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have clarified that current plans focus on non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Officials have not ruled out underground explosive tests, with internal planning references to executing related directives by the end of 2028 and a typical 36-month preparation timeline for any resumption. Ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese and Russian moratorium violations, combined with the absence of explosive tests since 1992 and continued subcritical work, shape trader assessments of whether a yield-producing test occurs within any specified window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоЯдерное испытание США...?
Ядерное испытание США...?
$795,253 Объем
30 сент. 2026 г.
30 сентября 2026 года
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
5%
$795,253 Объем
30 сентября 2026 года
$57,555 Объем
1%
31 декабря 2026 года
$76,887 Объем
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities at their test sites, remains the central driver of market attention. Subsequent administration statements, including from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have clarified that current plans focus on non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Officials have not ruled out underground explosive tests, with internal planning references to executing related directives by the end of 2028 and a typical 36-month preparation timeline for any resumption. Ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese and Russian moratorium violations, combined with the absence of explosive tests since 1992 and continued subcritical work, shape trader assessments of whether a yield-producing test occurs within any specified window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Объем
$795,253Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities at their test sites, remains the central driver of market attention. Subsequent administration statements, including from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have clarified that current plans focus on non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Officials have not ruled out underground explosive tests, with internal planning references to executing related directives by the end of 2028 and a typical 36-month preparation timeline for any resumption. Ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese and Russian moratorium violations, combined with the absence of explosive tests since 1992 and continued subcritical work, shape trader assessments of whether a yield-producing test occurs within any specified window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$795,253Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield explosive activities at their test sites, remains the central driver of market attention. Subsequent administration statements, including from Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have clarified that current plans focus on non-explosive system tests, subcritical experiments, and stockpile stewardship activities at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. Officials have not ruled out underground explosive tests, with internal planning references to executing related directives by the end of 2028 and a typical 36-month preparation timeline for any resumption. Ongoing U.S. accusations of Chinese and Russian moratorium violations, combined with the absence of explosive tests since 1992 and continued subcritical work, shape trader assessments of whether a yield-producing test occurs within any specified window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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