Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s commanding position in the WA-09 House race stems from the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. Smith advanced comfortably through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face perennial Republican challenger Doug Basler, benefiting from a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million and the absence of viable left-wing opposition after splintered challenges. Traders’ near-96% consensus aligns with historical results and the limited path for an upset in this safely Democratic Seattle-area seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking national political shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected scandals before the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПобедитель выборов в Палату представителей WA-09
Победитель выборов в Палату представителей WA-09
$51,337 Объем
$51,337 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Адам Смит (Д)
96%
Даг Бэслер (Р)
2%
$51,337 Объем
$51,337 Объем
2 нояб. 2026 г.
Адам Смит (Д)
$11,845 Объем
96%
Даг Бэслер (Р)
$39,492 Объем
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s commanding position in the WA-09 House race stems from the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. Smith advanced comfortably through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face perennial Republican challenger Doug Basler, benefiting from a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million and the absence of viable left-wing opposition after splintered challenges. Traders’ near-96% consensus aligns with historical results and the limited path for an upset in this safely Democratic Seattle-area seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking national political shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected scandals before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Открытие рынка: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Объем
$51,337Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s commanding position in the WA-09 House race stems from the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. Smith advanced comfortably through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face perennial Republican challenger Doug Basler, benefiting from a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million and the absence of viable left-wing opposition after splintered challenges. Traders’ near-96% consensus aligns with historical results and the limited path for an upset in this safely Democratic Seattle-area seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking national political shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected scandals before the November general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Объем
$51,337Дата окончания
3 нояб. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Smith’s commanding position in the WA-09 House race stems from the district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters. Smith advanced comfortably through Washington’s August 2026 top-two primary to face perennial Republican challenger Doug Basler, benefiting from a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.8 million and the absence of viable left-wing opposition after splintered challenges. Traders’ near-96% consensus aligns with historical results and the limited path for an upset in this safely Democratic Seattle-area seat. Scenarios that could realistically alter the outcome include late-breaking national political shifts, candidate health developments, or unexpected scandals before the November general election.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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