Kalshi Launches CFTC-Regulated Ethereum Perpetual Futures in US

↓ 1,500 surges to 94%53%

On June 5, 2026, Kalshi launched the first CFTC-regulated Ethereum perpetual futures product in the US, marking a regulatory milestone. This increased regulated trading access but also introduced new market dynamics and regulatory scrutiny, influencing Ethereum price volatility.

Ethereum trades near $1,760 after losing $2,000 support; technical analysis shows critical support zone

↓ 1,500 surges to 93%41%

On June 5, 2026, Ethereum traded near $1,760 after breaking below the $2,000 support level, with technical analysis indicating a critical liquidation zone down to $1,500. This bearish technical setup reflected market caution and potential for further downside.

Bankless co-founders publicly clash over Ethereum's economic foundation

↓ 1,500 surges to 93%41%

A public dispute between Bankless co-founders on June 5, 2026, highlighted divergent views on the necessity of ETH token to Ethereum's value, underscoring internal community debates that may influence investor sentiment and market dynamics.

US Spot Ethereum ETFs Log Record 17-Day Outflow Streak

↓ 1,500 surges to 90%18%

A punishing 17-day streak of net outflows from US spot Ethereum ETFs drained approximately $401 million in May, signaling a massive institutional capital rotation out of ETH and pushing the asset to its lowest level in over two years.

Ethereum price analysis shows critical support near $1,500 amid bearish market conditions

↓ 1,500 surges to 93%36%

On June 5, 2026, technical analysis identified a major liquidation zone extending down to $1,500, with Ethereum trading near $1,760 and an extremely oversold RSI. This bearish technical outlook aligned with ETF outflows and institutional selling pressure, reinforcing market expectations of a price drop to $1,500.

Ethereum price breaks below $2,000 support, RSI hits oversold levels

On June 5, 2026, Ethereum broke below the $2,000 support level with the daily RSI at an extremely oversold 18, indicating strong bearish momentum and a significant liquidation cluster down to $1,500, reinforcing market expectations of lower price targets.

Ethereum Breaks Below $2,000 Support, Technical Analysis Signals Bearish Trend

↓ 1,500 surges to 95%54%

Technical analysis on June 5, 2026, showed Ethereum trading around $1,760 after losing the $2,000 support level, with an extremely oversold RSI of 18 and a significant long liquidation cluster identified down to $1,500. This bearish technical breakdown increased market expectations for ETH to hit lower price targets before 2027.

CME CEO Warns on Risks of Regulated Crypto Perpetual Futures

↓ 1,500 drops to 41%10%

On June 4, 2026, the CME CEO publicly warned that regulated crypto perpetual futures could be a "disaster" for investors, injecting caution into the market. This statement contributed to bearish sentiment and price pressure on Ethereum futures and related markets.

Ethereum Glamsterdam Upgrade Officially Delayed to Q3 2026

↓ 1,500 surges to 90%18%

The highly anticipated Glamsterdam upgrade, originally targeted for June, was officially delayed to the third quarter of 2026. This delay removed a major near-term bullish catalyst, accelerating the price slide toward the $1,500 support level.

Kalshi launches CFTC-regulated Ethereum perpetual futures in the US

↓ 1,500 surges to 93%36%

On June 4, 2026, Kalshi launched Ethereum perpetual futures under CFTC regulation, marking a significant regulatory milestone that brought leveraged crypto trading into a regulated US framework. This event increased market access and liquidity for US traders, contributing to a sharp rise in the probability of Ethereum hitting $1,500.

Ethereum Trades Near Critical Support Zone Amid Regulatory Uncertainty

↓ 1,500 surges to 90%37%

By early June 2026, Ethereum was trading near $1,760, approaching a major support zone between $1,500 and $1,700 amid bearish market pressure and regulatory concerns. This price level was seen as a potential accumulation area, reflecting market caution despite upcoming upgrades.

Crypto Clarity Act Added to US Senate Legislative Calendar

↓ 1,500 surges to 90%40%

The procedural advancement of the Crypto Clarity Act in the Senate cleared the bill for full consideration, offering hope for reduced regulatory overhang.

FG Nexus buys back 12,000 ETH, signaling confidence

↑ 5,000 rises to 42%4%

A day after Glamsterdam, FG Nexus announced a large ETH purchase, signaling confidence and further propelling the price upward across the top outcomes.

Ethereum Whales Accumulate Amid Price Decline, Indicating Long-Term Confidence

↓ 1,500 surges to 73%31%

Large Ethereum holders increased their supply holdings to a 10-week high in early June 2026, signaling smart money accumulation during price weakness. This behavior suggests conviction in Ethereum's long-term value and potential for price support.

Standard Chartered Reiterates $4,000 Year-End Price Target for Ethereum

↑ 4,000 dips to 13%3%

Standard Chartered bank reaffirmed its bullish year-end 2026 price target of $4,000 for Ethereum on June 2, citing strong fundamentals and staking yields. This endorsement supported positive market sentiment and accumulation by large holders, influencing the ↑ 4,000 and ↑ 4,500 outcomes.

Tom Lee predicts Ethereum will hit $5,000 as corporate validators increase network control

Tom Lee of Bitmine forecasted Ethereum reaching $5,000, citing corporate validators controlling a growing share of ETH supply and generating substantial staking rewards, which could fund ecosystem growth and drive price appreciation.

Crypto Clarity Act added to U.S. Senate calendar, signaling potential regulatory clarity

The addition of the Crypto Clarity Act to the U.S. Senate calendar in early June 2026 suggested forthcoming regulatory clarity for digital assets including Ethereum, which could reduce regulatory overhang and influence market sentiment positively, though immediate price impact was limited.

Ethereum Foundation Leadership Shakeup as Eight Senior Figures Depart

↓ 1,500 surges to 76%27%

The sudden departure of eight senior figures raised coordination concerns for the upcoming Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades, driving bearish sentiment.

Ethereum Foundation Leadership Shakeup Raises Upgrade Coordination Concerns

↓ 1,000 jumps to 27%7%

Eight senior figures departed the Ethereum Foundation in early June 2026, raising questions about the coordination and execution of upcoming major upgrades. This uncertainty contributed to short-term bearish sentiment and price resistance around key technical levels.

Glamsterdam hard‑fork goes live on June 1 2026

↑ 5,500 jumps to 41%11%

The Glamsterdam fork successfully activated on 1 June 2026, delivering parallel transaction processing and a gas‑limit hike. The upgrade sparked a rapid rally that pushed the market into the highest price bucket.

Ethereum treasury firm FG Nexus sells 10,922 ETH to fund share buyback program

↓ 1,000 plunges to 20%24%

FG Nexus, a major Ethereum treasury firm, sold a large amount of ETH in November 2025 to fund a share buyback, representing significant institutional selling pressure. This event contributed to bearish sentiment and downward price pressure during the period.

Ethereum Whales Accumulate Amid Market Sell-Off

↓ 1,500 surges to 74%32%

Large Ethereum holders increased their supply control to a 10-week high by early June 2026, signaling smart money accumulation despite retail selling and ETF outflows. This accumulation suggested confidence in Ethereum's long-term value, supporting the ↓ 1,500 outcome's price recovery.

Ethereum suffers major liquidations amid macroeconomic concerns

↓ 1,500 jumps to 49%8%

On May 18, 2026, Ethereum experienced significant liquidations exceeding $563 million due to broader macroeconomic worries, causing sharp price declines and increased market volatility.

Ethereum Suffers Over $563M in Liquidations Amid Macroeconomic Concerns

↓ 1,500 jumps to 49%5%

A sharp drop in Ethereum's price triggered massive liquidations in the derivatives market, resulting in over $563 million lost by traders as macroeconomic worries intensified.

Senate passes GENIUS Act, clarifying crypto regulation

↑ 4,500 jumps to 43%11%

The U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, providing clearer regulatory treatment for digital assets. The news reduced uncertainty and helped lift the mid‑range price buckets.

SEC approves spot Ethereum ETFs, trading begins July 2026

↑ 4,000 surges to 46%15%

The SEC approved spot‑Ethereum ETFs in May 2026, opening a new regulated access channel for institutional capital. Inflows into these ETFs lifted sentiment and nudged the market upward, especially the mid‑range price buckets.

Enzymatic Injector release implements Amsterdam fork prerequisites and launches ETH/70 protocol

↓ 1,500 rises to 52%2%

This maintenance release in May 2026 advanced the Amsterdam fork preparations and introduced the ETH/70 protocol, contributing to Ethereum's technical evolution and scalability improvements. It signaled ongoing development momentum, though market reaction was muted amid broader bearish sentiment.

Ethereum Foundation releases Enzymatic Injector implementing Amsterdam fork prerequisites

↓ 1,500 rises to 52%2%

The May 2026 release of the Enzymatic Injector implemented prerequisites for the Amsterdam fork and launched the ETH/70 protocol, signaling progress toward major network upgrades and supporting positive market sentiment.

Ethereum Foundation Releases Protocol Update Highlighting Progress on Glamsterdam

↓ 1,500 drops to 41%9%

The Ethereum Foundation provided a protocol update detailing progress on the Glamsterdam upgrade, including testing of key Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) like enshrined proposer-builder separation (ePBS) and block-level access lists. The upgrade was targeted for mid-2026 but with potential delays to Q3. This update reinforced expectations for improved network scalability but coincided with increased market volatility and price pressure.

Arbitrum DAO Delegates Approve Release of $71M in Frozen ETH to Aave-Led Recovery

Arbitrum DAO delegates voted to release $71 million in frozen ETH to assist in an Aave-led recovery effort, though governance rules delayed the actual transfer.

Arbitrum DAO Approves Release of $71M in Frozen ETH to Aave Recovery

↓ 1,500 rises to 44%3%

Arbitrum DAO delegates approved the release of $71 million in frozen ETH to an Aave-led recovery effort, though governance rules delayed the actual transfer.

Ethereum Pectra upgrade activates, raising validator stake cap and improving wallet mechanics

↓ 1,500 rises to 52%2%

The Pectra upgrade, activated in May 2025 but impacting ongoing network performance into 2026, raised the validator stake cap from 32 ETH to 2,048 ETH and improved wallet and fee mechanics. This upgrade enhanced Ethereum's staking ecosystem and network usability, supporting positive price fundamentals.

Ethereum trades near $1,675 with bearish technical indicators signaling oversold conditions

↓ 1,500 rises to 52%2%

By early May 2026, Ethereum was trading near $1,675, below key moving averages with RSI indicating oversold conditions, reflecting bearish market sentiment and increasing probability for lower price targets such as below $1,500.

Ethereum whales accumulate amid price sell-off signaling smart money confidence

↓ 1,500 jumps to 49%8%

Large Ethereum holders increased their supply holdings to a 10-week high in early May 2026, indicating accumulation during a price decline. This behavior suggested strong conviction in Ethereum's long-term value and provided a bullish counter-signal to retail selling pressure, influencing price recovery prospects.

Coordinated Wallet Drain Exploit Hits Ethereum Mainnet

↓ 1,000 drops to 16%7%

A coordinated wallet drain targeting hundreds of Ethereum mainnet addresses, including dormant accounts, rattled market security narratives and pressured prices.

Glamsterdam upgrade slated for June 2026

↑ 5,000 rises to 42%4%

A roadmap update confirmed the June 2026 target date for the Glamsterdam hard‑fork, reigniting optimism about parallel transaction execution and further gas reductions, which helped the market rebound from its low‑point in early‑April.

Ethereum Spot ETFs Experience Significant Outflows, Pressuring ETH Price

↓ 800 plunges to 19%22%

In May 2026, US Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $401.62 million, the third-largest monthly outflow since late 2025. This selling pressure contributed to a 19.6% price decline in May 2026, reflecting short-term weakness despite underlying network improvements.

Ethereum Foundation Leadership Shakeup Raises Upgrade Coordination Concerns

↑ 4,000 drops to 13%12%

On June 1, 2026, eight senior figures departed the Ethereum Foundation, raising questions about the coordination of upcoming major upgrades like Glamsterdam and Hegota. This event introduced execution risk, tempering bullish price expectations for outcomes like ↑ 4,000 and ↑ 4,500.

FG Nexus sells additional ETH amid market weakness

↓ 800 drops to 14%8%

FG Nexus announced a second ETH sell‑off (≈ $30 million) in April 2026, adding short‑term pressure and contributing to a dip in the lower‑price outcomes just before the Glamsterdam catalyst.

Charles Schwab Launches Spot Ethereum ETF Amid Ceasefire and Staking Milestones

↑ 3,500 jumps to 44%7%

Ethereum experienced a mid-month price surge driven by a combination of positive catalysts, including the launch of Charles Schwab's spot ETH ETF, a US-Iran ceasefire, and the Ethereum Foundation reaching a 70,000 ETH staking milestone.

Ethereum Foundation Commits 70,000 ETH to Staking

↓ 1,500 plunges to 53%19%

The Ethereum Foundation shifted from periodic sales to staking 70,000 ETH to earn yield, boosting institutional confidence and helping stabilize the asset.

Ethereum Closes Q1 2026 With 33% Price Crash Despite Record Network Usage

↓ 1,000 dips to 24%2%

Ethereum closed the first quarter of 2026 with a steep 32.8% price decline, driven by derivative liquidations, capital migration to Layer 2s, and macroeconomic fears, despite record-high on-chain activity.

Ethereum Foundation Outlines 2026 Roadmap with Glamsterdam and Hegotá Upgrades

↓ 1,500 rises to 73%3%

The Ethereum Foundation announced two major network upgrades for 2026: Glamsterdam in the first half and Hegotá in the second half. Glamsterdam aims to triple Layer 1 throughput and reduce gas fees significantly, while Hegotá focuses on state management improvements. These upgrades were anticipated to enhance scalability and decentralization, but the market remained cautious amid macroeconomic pressures.

SEC and CFTC Jointly Classify Ethereum as a Digital Commodity

↑ 4,000 dips to 25%1%

In a major regulatory milestone, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified ETH as a digital commodity, settling long-standing security status debates and paving the way for staking-enabled ETFs.

SEC and CFTC Jointly Classify Ethereum as a Digital Commodity

↓ 1,500 jumps to 68%14%

In a landmark regulatory ruling, the SEC and CFTC jointly classified Ethereum as a digital commodity. This decision removed a long-standing securities-law overhang and explicitly confirmed that staking within ETF structures does not trigger securities registration.

Hegota upgrade roadmap detailed, targeting H2 2026

↑ 4,000 jumps to 46%7%

A progress update on the upcoming Hegota upgrade clarified timelines and introduced additional EIPs, lifting sentiment and pulling prices up modestly in the medium‑range buckets.

US Producer Price Index Rises 3.4% Fueling Inflation Fears

↓ 1,000 dips to 26%2%

The February PPI came in hotter than expected at 3.4%, signaling accelerating wholesale inflation and prompting fears of a hawkish Federal Reserve, which weighed heavily on risk assets.

Ethereum Foundation Outlines New Roadmap for 2026 Upgrades

↓ 1,500 surges to 71%40%

On February 18, 2026, Ethereum Foundation announced detailed plans for the Glamsterdam upgrade, emphasizing parallel transaction processing and higher gas limits to scale Layer 1. This update was expected to improve throughput and reduce fees, positively influencing market expectations.

Ethereum Foundation announces 2026 roadmap with Glamsterdam and Hegotá upgrades

↓ 1,500 surges to 72%40%

The Ethereum Foundation outlined two major upgrades for 2026: Glamsterdam in the first half and Hegotá in the second half, focusing on Layer 1 scalability, parallel transaction processing, and decentralization. This announcement heightened market expectations for significant network improvements, impacting price dynamics especially for the ↓ 1,500 and ↑ 3,500 outcomes.

Ethereum Foundation Outlines Detailed 2026 Roadmap Including Glamsterdam

↓ 1,500 rises to 74%4%

The Ethereum Foundation published a detailed roadmap on February 18, 2026, emphasizing Glamsterdam's focus on parallel execution and higher gas limits to scale Layer 1, and Hegota's focus on state management. This reinforced expectations for improved network performance, supporting moderate price levels.

Ethereum Foundation announces roadmap for 2026 upgrades Glamsterdam and Hegota

↓ 1,500 drops to 64%9%

The Ethereum Foundation's announcement of the Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades for 2026 outlined plans to improve scalability and network throughput, boosting investor confidence and expectations for Ethereum's long-term growth potential.

Ethereum Foundation Announces New Protocol Roadmap Details

The Ethereum Foundation outlined the structured approach for Glamsterdam and Hegota, though macro headwinds like high Fed rates limited immediate price response.

Ethereum Foundation Outlines 2026 Roadmap Featuring Glamsterdam and Hegota Upgrades

↑ 3,500 plunges to 17%40%

The Ethereum Foundation announced a structured roadmap for 2026 focusing on two major upgrades: Glamsterdam in mid-2026 and Hegota in late 2026. These upgrades aim to increase throughput, enable parallel transaction processing, and improve decentralization, boosting investor confidence in Ethereum's scalability and long-term prospects.

Ethereum Price Drops Amid Macro Headwinds and ETF Outflows

↑ 3,500 plunges to 35%44%

In early February 2026, Ethereum's price declined sharply due to macroeconomic factors including oil-driven inflation, Federal Reserve hawkishness, and significant ETF outflows. This contributed to a drop in bullish price outcomes such as ↑ 3,500 and ↑ 4,000.

Ethereum price surges near $3,800 amid ETF inflows and staking interest

↑ 3,500 surges to 88%31%

In early February 2026, Ethereum experienced a price surge near $3,800 driven by institutional ETF inflows and staking demand, temporarily boosting confidence in higher price outcomes, though this was short-lived as bearish trends resumed.

Vitalik Buterin Questions Layer-2 Rollup Scaling Strategy

↑ 3,500 drops to 34%14%

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sparked intense debate by questioning the long-standing emphasis on Layer-2 rollups for scaling, suggesting the mainnet might suffice. This coincided with reports of Buterin-linked wallets selling millions in ETH, triggering a sharp drop in bullish sentiment.

Vitalik Buterin Sparks Debate Over Layer-2 Rollups and Sells ETH

↓ 1,500 surges to 72%38%

Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin questioned the long-standing emphasis on Layer-2 rollups for scaling, suggesting the mainnet might suffice. This sparked intense debate and coincided with on-chain reports of Buterin-linked wallets selling millions in ETH, driving a sharp market downturn.

Global Crypto Market Plunges as Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000

↓ 1,500 surges to 71%34%

A sharp global market sell-off dragged major altcoins down, with Bitcoin falling below the key $75,000 threshold and pulling Ethereum down with it.

Massive Liquidation Event Wipes Out $1.68 Billion in Crypto Positions

↑ 3,500 plunges to 38%41%

A brutal market-wide leverage flush triggered $1.68 billion in liquidations, with 93% of those being long positions, severely damaging Ethereum's price momentum.

SEC Staff Issues Taxonomy Statement on Tokenized Securities

↑ 4,500 plunges to 17%29%

The SEC Division of Corporation Finance and other divisions issued a joint statement setting a basic taxonomy for tokenized securities, clarifying regulatory expectations.

SEC issues statement clarifying taxonomy of tokenized securities

↓ 1,500 surges to 69%38%

The SEC's January 2026 statement on tokenized securities provided regulatory clarity, reducing uncertainty for Ethereum-based token projects and institutional investors. This helped stabilize market sentiment and supported Ethereum's institutional adoption prospects.

Ethereum classified as a digital commodity by SEC and CFTC, staking confirmed not a securities offering

↓ 1,500 surges to 69%38%

In March 2026, Ethereum's regulatory status was clarified with joint classification as a digital commodity, and staking was ruled not to constitute a securities offering. This regulatory clarity reduced uncertainty, supporting institutional adoption and positively impacting Ethereum's market outlook.

IRS mandates crypto cost‑basis reporting starting 2026

↓ 1,000 jumps to 44%7%

New IRS cost‑basis reporting rules took effect in 2026, prompting some traders to defer selling, which briefly supported the market and limited a deeper fall in early‑year prices.

Ethereum price holds above $3,000 after year-end rebound

↓ 1,500 dips to 34%4%

At the start of 2026, Ethereum maintained a price above $3,000, showing modest recovery after a downtrend, but the market remained cautious, with probabilities for higher price targets declining and lower targets gaining favor.

Ethereum Developers Slated Hegota Upgrade for Late 2026

↑ 4,500 dips to 55%1%

Developers accelerated the roadmap, scheduling Hegota to follow the mid-2026 Glamsterdam upgrade to ship network changes more frequently.

Ethereum Announces 2026 Upgrades Glamsterdam and Hegotá

↓ 1,500 jumps to 53%5%

Ethereum core developers revealed plans for two major 2026 upgrades: Glamsterdam in mid-2026 focusing on scalability and gas efficiency, and Hegotá in late 2026 targeting state management and censorship resistance. This roadmap reinforced investor confidence in Ethereum's long-term scalability and institutional appeal.

Ethereum Developers Announce 2026 Upgrades Glamsterdam and Hegota

↓ 1,500 surges to 68%15%

Ethereum core developers revealed plans for two major 2026 upgrades: Glamsterdam in mid-2026 focusing on scalability and gas efficiency, and Hegota in late 2026 targeting state management and censorship resistance. This roadmap provided a clear upgrade path, initially boosting market confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.

Ethereum Developers Announce Two Major Network Upgrades for 2026

↑ 4,000 drops to 66%7%

Core developers revealed plans for the Glamsterdam and Hegota upgrades in 2026, shifting the network to a predictable biannual release schedule.

SEC Division of Trading and Markets Issues No-Action Letter for DTC Tokenization Pilot

↑ 4,000 dips to 73%4%

The SEC cleared the path for the Depository Trust Company to run a three-year pilot program to tokenize DTC-custodied assets on supported blockchains, boosting institutional integration prospects.

Ethereum Fusaka upgrade activates, enhancing validator capacity and network scalability

↓ 1,500 plunges to 16%25%

The Fusaka upgrade, activated in December 2025, introduced PeerDAS and increased the L1 gas limit, improving Ethereum's throughput and validator efficiency. This technical progress supported the network's scalability narrative, influencing market confidence in Ethereum's long-term value.

Fusaka upgrade goes live on Ethereum mainnet

↑ 3,500 jumps to 57%12%

The Fusaka hard‑fork activated on the Ethereum mainnet, adding PeerDAS and increasing the blob data limit. Traders expected faster L2 scaling and reduced fees, which pushed the market upside, especially for the higher‑price buckets.

Ethereum Activates Fusaka Upgrade on Mainnet to Boost Scalability

↑ 4,000 jumps to 82%7%

The Fusaka upgrade successfully went live on the Ethereum mainnet, introducing PeerDAS and setting the stage for cheaper Layer-2 transactions and higher throughput.

Ethereum activates Fusaka upgrade enhancing Layer 2 scaling and data availability

↓ 800 drops to 9%7%

The Fusaka upgrade, completed in December 2025, improved Layer 2 scaling and blob fee mechanics, reducing transaction costs and increasing network efficiency. This upgrade was a key technical milestone that supported Ethereum's scalability narrative, influencing market sentiment positively for lower price thresholds.

Ethereum Activates Fusaka Protocol Upgrade to Standardize Gas Limits

↑ 3,500 surges to 86%29%

The Fusaka upgrade successfully activated on the Ethereum mainnet, standardizing the L1 gas limit to 60M and improving network capacity. This technical milestone supported bullish sentiment for higher price targets.

Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Successfully Activates PeerDAS on Mainnet

↑ 3,500 surges to 87%30%

The activation of the Fusaka upgrade successfully scaled data availability for Layer 2 rollups, boosting short-term technical optimism.

Ethereum deploys Fusaka upgrade enhancing Layer 2 scaling and blob fee mechanics

The Fusaka upgrade, activated in December 2025, improved Ethereum's Layer 2 scaling and introduced blob fee mechanics, enhancing network efficiency and reducing transaction costs. This technical progress supported positive market sentiment and contributed to price stability and growth expectations.

Ethereum Fusaka Upgrade Launches, Boosting Network Scalability

↓ 1,500 jumps to 53%8%

The Fusaka upgrade went live on December 3, 2025, introducing Peer Data Availability Sampling and increasing blob capacity, which significantly improved Layer 2 transaction costs and network throughput. This upgrade reinforced positive market sentiment, supporting higher probabilities for moderate price targets.

Ethereum price consolidates between $3,700 and $4,200 amid market weakness

In late November 2025, Ethereum was consolidating in the $3,700-$4,200 range after a volatile 2025, reflecting broad market weakness and setting the stage for a downward trend. This contributed to the market's increasing probability of lower price outcomes such as below $1,500.