Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and supply-chain patterns have driven near-certain market consensus that at least one iPhone 18 model will ship in 2026. The company’s September 9 keynote introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max with expected availability starting September 18, alongside a new foldable variant, confirming the premium segment of the lineup meets the 2026 threshold. This aligns with historical post-Labor Day launch timing and recent iOS 27 beta signals anchoring the fall window. While the base iPhone 18 has shifted to spring 2027 to ease manufacturing and boost average selling prices, the already-confirmed premium releases leave virtually no realistic path to a complete 2026 absence, barring an unprecedented last-minute regulatory or production halt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple выпускать iPhone 18 в 2026 году?
Да
>99% вероятность
$235,610 Объем
$235,610 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
>99% вероятность
$235,610 Объем
$235,610 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and supply-chain patterns have driven near-certain market consensus that at least one iPhone 18 model will ship in 2026. The company’s September 9 keynote introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max with expected availability starting September 18, alongside a new foldable variant, confirming the premium segment of the lineup meets the 2026 threshold. This aligns with historical post-Labor Day launch timing and recent iOS 27 beta signals anchoring the fall window. While the base iPhone 18 has shifted to spring 2027 to ease manufacturing and boost average selling prices, the already-confirmed premium releases leave virtually no realistic path to a complete 2026 absence, barring an unprecedented last-minute regulatory or production halt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Объем
$235,610Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and supply-chain patterns have driven near-certain market consensus that at least one iPhone 18 model will ship in 2026. The company’s September 9 keynote introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max with expected availability starting September 18, alongside a new foldable variant, confirming the premium segment of the lineup meets the 2026 threshold. This aligns with historical post-Labor Day launch timing and recent iOS 27 beta signals anchoring the fall window. While the base iPhone 18 has shifted to spring 2027 to ease manufacturing and boost average selling prices, the already-confirmed premium releases leave virtually no realistic path to a complete 2026 absence, barring an unprecedented last-minute regulatory or production halt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$235,610Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual hardware cadence and supply-chain patterns have driven near-certain market consensus that at least one iPhone 18 model will ship in 2026. The company’s September 9 keynote introduced the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max with expected availability starting September 18, alongside a new foldable variant, confirming the premium segment of the lineup meets the 2026 threshold. This aligns with historical post-Labor Day launch timing and recent iOS 27 beta signals anchoring the fall window. While the base iPhone 18 has shifted to spring 2027 to ease manufacturing and boost average selling prices, the already-confirmed premium releases leave virtually no realistic path to a complete 2026 absence, barring an unprecedented last-minute regulatory or production halt.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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