Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วFed Decision in October?
Fed Decision in October?
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$974,542 ปริมาณ
$974,542 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
3%
No change
71%
25 bps increase
27%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 71%
25 bps increase 27%
25 bps decrease 3.4%
50+ bps decrease 1.1%
$974,542 ปริมาณ
$974,542 ปริมาณ
Oct 28, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$170,441 ปริมาณ
1%
25 bps decrease
$332,218 ปริมาณ
3%
No change
$180,051 ปริมาณ
71%
25 bps increase
$175,212 ปริมาณ
27%
50+ bps increase
$116,619 ปริมาณ
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$974,542วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$974,542วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks and elevated 2026 PCE projections around 3.6% anchor trader consensus on no change at the October 28 FOMC meeting, reflected in the 70.5% market-implied probability for holding the 3.50–3.75% federal funds target range. Recent June and July decisions maintained rates amid solid GDP growth near 2.2%, stable unemployment around 4.3%, and limited labor market cooling, while the median dot plot signals an appropriate year-end rate near 3.8%. The 26.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike price in renewed inflation risks that could prompt tighter policy, whereas sub-4% probabilities for cuts reflect anchored longer-term expectations and balanced dual-mandate risks. Upcoming CPI and employment data ahead of the meeting remain key swing factors for these probabilities.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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