**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the 74-75°F bin at 99.8% implied probability** because official National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum temperature in that narrow range on September 2, 2026. Atmospheric conditions featured persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and limited daytime heating that kept the high well below late-summer climatological norms of roughly 80°F. Model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours had already converged on this cooler outcome, and post-event verification aligned closely with those forecasts. The only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution involve a late data revision by NOAA or use of an alternate station reading, both of which are rare for this market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in NYC on September 2?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 2?
74-75°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$75,889 ปริมาณ
$75,889 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
Yes
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
74-75°F 100.0%
69°F or below <1%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
$75,889 ปริมาณ
$75,889 ปริมาณ
Sep 2, 2026
69°F or below
$13,326 ปริมาณ
No
70-71°F
$13,679 ปริมาณ
No
72-73°F
$11,909 ปริมาณ
No
74-75°F
$11,286 ปริมาณ
Yes
76-77°F
$8,912 ปริมาณ
No
78-79°F
$8,105 ปริมาณ
No
80-81°F
$3,726 ปริมาณ
No
82-83°F
$1,552 ปริมาณ
No
84-85°F
$2,493 ปริมาณ
No
86-87°F
$541 ปริมาณ
No
88°F or higher
$359 ปริมาณ
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the 74-75°F bin at 99.8% implied probability** because official National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum temperature in that narrow range on September 2, 2026.
Atmospheric conditions featured persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and limited daytime heating that kept the high well below late-summer climatological norms of roughly 80°F. Model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours had already converged on this cooler outcome, and post-event verification aligned closely with those forecasts.
The only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution involve a late data revision by NOAA or use of an alternate station reading, both of which are rare for this market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$75,889วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the 74-75°F bin at 99.8% implied probability** because official National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum temperature in that narrow range on September 2, 2026.
Atmospheric conditions featured persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and limited daytime heating that kept the high well below late-summer climatological norms of roughly 80°F. Model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours had already converged on this cooler outcome, and post-event verification aligned closely with those forecasts.
The only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution involve a late data revision by NOAA or use of an alternate station reading, both of which are rare for this market.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$75,889วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 2, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 3:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...เสนอผลลัพธ์แล้ว: No
ไม่มีการคัดค้าน
ผลลัพธ์สุดท้าย: No
**Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors the 74-75°F bin at 99.8% implied probability** because official National Weather Service observations from Central Park confirmed a daily maximum temperature in that narrow range on September 2, 2026. Atmospheric conditions featured persistent cloud cover, easterly flow, and limited daytime heating that kept the high well below late-summer climatological norms of roughly 80°F. Model guidance issued in the preceding 48 hours had already converged on this cooler outcome, and post-event verification aligned closely with those forecasts. The only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution involve a late data revision by NOAA or use of an alternate station reading, both of which are rare for this market.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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