Indonesia’s longstanding policy conditions formal diplomatic relations with Israel on recognition of a Palestinian state and advancement toward a two-state solution, a stance reaffirmed by President Prabowo Subianto in 2025 UN statements and recent joint declarations supporting settlement restrictions. Quiet bilateral trade, security contacts, and people-to-people ties persist without official embassies or direct government-to-government channels. US efforts to link Indonesia’s trade alignment and OECD accession to Abraham Accords expansion have not produced a breakthrough, while domestic political constraints and public opinion limit flexibility. Trader consensus prices normalization by mid-2026 at low single digits, reflecting these structural hurdles and the absence of scheduled summits or votes that could alter the status quo before key deadlines.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMarket falls sharply as no concrete diplomatic announcements materialize
June 30, 2026 drops to 8%8%
Disappointment over lack of formal steps caused a swift decline.
Market briefly rallies on speculation of incremental diplomatic progress between Indonesia and Israel
June 30, 2026 jumps to 16%13%
Speculation about phased cooperation raised hopes temporarily.
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