**Traders overwhelmingly favor “Under” at 97% implied probability because the relevant Pikachu ex chase card—most likely the Special Illustration Rare from the Ascended Heroes set (e.g., #276/217)—is trading in the $850–1,050 raw near-mint range on major platforms like TCGplayer and eBay, with recent aggregates around $900–1,048.** This reflects steady secondary-market data from verified sales, where prices have remained stable or slightly soft in the final days of August without meaningful upward momentum. High-grade PSA 10 copies can exceed $1,300–1,600, but the market resolves on the standard raw price point, which has shown no breakout. The strong consensus stems from consistent liquidity and transparent pricing on established TCG marketplaces, reinforced by the card’s established collector demand rather than speculative spikes. Realistic upset scenarios that could still flip the outcome are limited but include an abrupt last-minute surge in collector buying (e.g., driven by social media hype or a surprise Pokémon Company announcement), a cluster of high-end raw sales pushing the daily average over the threshold, or shifts in how the resolving price is calculated. Given the current data and lack of fresh catalysts, these remain low-probability on the resolution day.