This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Trilateral US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced prisoner exchanges but stalled over territorial demands, with Russia seeking Ukrainian concessions in Donetsk and other regions while Ukraine rejects ceding land. Formal negotiations halted in February amid US focus on Iran, and subsequent Russian statements have dismissed immediate prospects for resuming full talks. Short-lived holiday ceasefires occurred in spring without broader effect, and recent US proposals for partial pauses on energy infrastructure or long-range strikes have faced Kremlin pushback favoring recognition of battlefield gains. Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian targets have increased pressure, yet Moscow continues to condition any deal on security and territorial terms. US diplomatic efforts, including envoy visits and leader calls, remain active but have not bridged gaps, leaving trader assessments of near-term ceasefire timelines shaped by these entrenched positions and limited recent momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced prisoner exchanges but stalled over territorial demands, with Russia seeking Ukrainian concessions in Donetsk and other regions while Ukraine rejects ceding land. Formal negotiations halted in February amid US focus on Iran, and subsequent Russian statements have dismissed immediate prospects for resuming full talks. Short-lived holiday ceasefires occurred in spring without broader effect, and recent US proposals for partial pauses on energy infrastructure or long-range strikes have faced Kremlin pushback favoring recognition of battlefield gains. Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian targets have increased pressure, yet Moscow continues to condition any deal on security and territorial terms. US diplomatic efforts, including envoy visits and leader calls, remain active but have not bridged gaps, leaving trader assessments of near-term ceasefire timelines shaped by these entrenched positions and limited recent momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Aug 30 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks stall as U.S. mediation fails to secure concrete dates
December 31 dips to 19%3%
By late August 2026, peace talks mediated by the U.S. had stalled without securing concrete dates for further negotiations or ceasefire agreements. Russian officials criticized Western negotiation efforts as insincere, and Moscow maintained its maximalist demands, leading to market pessimism about a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain on hold with no new ideas, Kremlin says
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, indicating stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 27 2026
Ukrainian officials signal potential resumption of trilateral talks with Russia and U.S.
June 30, 2027 dips to 50%1%
On August 27, 2026, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov indicated that trilateral talks with Russia and the U.S. could resume as early as September, with proposals including a ceasefire and security guarantees. Despite this diplomatic momentum, Russian maximalist demands and battlefield dynamics maintained market skepticism about near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 14 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
December 31 drops to 19%8%
On August 14, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly stated that Russia would not accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia through mediator
December 31 drops to 19%8%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia via a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific conflict area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, and the proposal did not constitute a general ceasefire, thus not qualifying as a full ceasefire agreement.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking progress in implementing the ceasefire terms and sustaining cautious optimism about future negotiations.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange under ceasefire agreement
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S. This tangible implementation of the prisoner swap demonstrated progress in the ceasefire terms and maintained diplomatic momentum.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each on May 15, marking a humanitarian step forward and reinforcing the ceasefire's temporary success, which supported market optimism about potential peace progress.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Trilateral US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced prisoner exchanges but stalled over territorial demands, with Russia seeking Ukrainian concessions in Donetsk and other regions while Ukraine rejects ceding land. Formal negotiations halted in February amid US focus on Iran, and subsequent Russian statements have dismissed immediate prospects for resuming full talks. Short-lived holiday ceasefires occurred in spring without broader effect, and recent US proposals for partial pauses on energy infrastructure or long-range strikes have faced Kremlin pushback favoring recognition of battlefield gains. Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian targets have increased pressure, yet Moscow continues to condition any deal on security and territorial terms. US diplomatic efforts, including envoy visits and leader calls, remain active but have not bridged gaps, leaving trader assessments of near-term ceasefire timelines shaped by these entrenched positions and limited recent momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Trilateral US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026 produced prisoner exchanges but stalled over territorial demands, with Russia seeking Ukrainian concessions in Donetsk and other regions while Ukraine rejects ceding land. Formal negotiations halted in February amid US focus on Iran, and subsequent Russian statements have dismissed immediate prospects for resuming full talks. Short-lived holiday ceasefires occurred in spring without broader effect, and recent US proposals for partial pauses on energy infrastructure or long-range strikes have faced Kremlin pushback favoring recognition of battlefield gains. Ukrainian long-range attacks on Russian targets have increased pressure, yet Moscow continues to condition any deal on security and territorial terms. US diplomatic efforts, including envoy visits and leader calls, remain active but have not bridged gaps, leaving trader assessments of near-term ceasefire timelines shaped by these entrenched positions and limited recent momentum.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
Aug 30 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks stall as U.S. mediation fails to secure concrete dates
December 31 dips to 19%3%
By late August 2026, peace talks mediated by the U.S. had stalled without securing concrete dates for further negotiations or ceasefire agreements. Russian officials criticized Western negotiation efforts as insincere, and Moscow maintained its maximalist demands, leading to market pessimism about a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia states peace talks with Ukraine remain on hold with no new ideas
December 31 drops to 19%8%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, signaling stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by late 2026.
Aug 28 2026
Russia-Ukraine peace talks remain on hold with no new ideas, Kremlin says
December 31 dips to 19%3%
The Kremlin announced that peace talks with Ukraine are currently on hold and no new proposals have been made, indicating stalled negotiations and continued military actions, which contributed to declining market confidence in a ceasefire by the end of 2026.
Aug 27 2026
Ukrainian officials signal potential resumption of trilateral talks with Russia and U.S.
June 30, 2027 dips to 50%1%
On August 27, 2026, Ukrainian Presidential Office head Kyrylo Budanov indicated that trilateral talks with Russia and the U.S. could resume as early as September, with proposals including a ceasefire and security guarantees. Despite this diplomatic momentum, Russian maximalist demands and battlefield dynamics maintained market skepticism about near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 22 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
October 31 dips to 11%3%
On August 14, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated Russia's unwillingness to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline, emphasizing Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 14 2026
Russian officials reiterate refusal to accept ceasefire without favorable terms
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Russia is unwilling to accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and emphasized Russia’s commitment to continue the war until a settlement on its own terms is secured. This stance reinforced market skepticism about a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026.
Aug 14 2026
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov reiterates refusal to accept ceasefire freezing current frontline
December 31 drops to 19%8%
On August 14, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov publicly stated that Russia would not accept a ceasefire that freezes the current frontline and reaffirmed Russia's commitment to continue the war until its terms are met. This hardened stance contributed to declining market confidence in near-term ceasefire agreements.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia
August 31 dips to 1%1%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia through a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, reflecting ongoing stalemate and limited progress toward a broader ceasefire.
Aug 13 2026
Ukraine proposes ceasefire in Black Sea to Russia through mediator
December 31 drops to 19%8%
Ukraine conveyed a proposal to Russia via a mediator to stop attacks on civilian targets in the Black Sea, aiming to reduce hostilities in a specific conflict area. Moscow had not responded by the end of the analysis window, and the proposal did not constitute a general ceasefire, thus not qualifying as a full ceasefire agreement.
Aug 11 2026
Ukraine hands US new proposals aimed at ending war with Russia
June 30, 2027 surges to 68%18%
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy announced that Kyiv has submitted new proposals to the US to end the war with Russia, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and potential groundwork for future ceasefire talks. This raised some market optimism for longer-term ceasefire possibilities.
Jul 26 2026
Kremlin says too early to comment on reported US-Ukraine air ceasefire talks
Reports emerged that the US and Ukraine were discussing a possible halt to aerial attacks as part of peace efforts, but the Kremlin considered it premature to comment. This indicated some diplomatic activity but no concrete ceasefire agreement, causing limited market impact.
Jul 26 2026
Ukraine and U.S. discuss air ceasefire proposal to present to Russia
December 31 dips to 20%2%
Ukrainian and U.S. officials discussed a proposal for an air ceasefire to present to Russia as a first step toward reviving peace talks, though the Kremlin considered it premature to comment, reflecting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid stalled negotiations.
Jun 18 2026
Zelensky says US pushing for Ukraine-Russia ceasefire by June 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that US envoys are pressing for a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia by June 2026, reflecting ongoing trilateral peace talks. This statement influenced market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by mid-2026, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
US, Ukraine push to resume peace talks with Russia aiming for partial ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 35%9%
Reports indicated renewed diplomatic efforts by the US and Ukraine to resume peace talks with Russia, aiming for a partial ceasefire by the end of 2026. This development increased market expectations for a ceasefire agreement by December 31, though skepticism remained due to unresolved issues.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy proposes meeting with Putin and full ceasefire during negotiations
December 31 drops to 36%8%
In June 2026, Zelenskyy proposed a face-to-face meeting with Putin in a neutral country and called for a full ceasefire for the duration of negotiations. Putin rejected the proposal, stating no point in a meeting and indicating Russia would continue fighting, which dampened ceasefire prospects.
Jun 1 2026
Ukrainian President Zelensky proposes full ceasefire for duration of negotiations
December 31 drops to 22%5%
In early June 2026, President Zelensky proposed a full ceasefire for the duration of peace negotiations and a face-to-face meeting with Putin, signaling Ukraine's willingness to freeze the frontline, though Russia rejected the offer, maintaining maximalist demands.
May 20 2026
Russia declares unilateral ceasefire for Victory Day but warns of retaliation
December 31 drops to 26%9%
Russia announced a unilateral ceasefire for May 8-9 to coincide with Victory Day celebrations but simultaneously warned of a major strike on Kyiv if Ukraine disrupted the parade. This contradictory stance underscored the fragility of ceasefire efforts and limited market confidence in a lasting agreement.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap under ceasefire agreement
December 31 dips to 19%4%
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking a significant humanitarian step. Despite this, sporadic violations and ongoing hostilities limited broader market confidence, reflected in declining prices for earlier ceasefire dates.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine exchange 205 prisoners each amid fragile ceasefire
June 30, 2027 rises to 57%1%
As part of the US-brokered ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners of war each on May 15, marking the first phase of a larger planned exchange. Despite the prisoner swap, fighting resumed shortly after the ceasefire ended, underscoring the temporary nature of the truce.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement brokered by the U.S., Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each, marking progress in implementing the ceasefire terms and sustaining cautious optimism about future negotiations.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange under ceasefire agreement
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S. This tangible implementation of the prisoner swap demonstrated progress in the ceasefire terms and maintained diplomatic momentum.
May 15 2026
Russia and Ukraine conduct prisoner exchange following ceasefire
As part of the May 9-11 ceasefire agreement, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each on May 15, marking a humanitarian step forward and reinforcing the ceasefire's temporary success, which supported market optimism about potential peace progress.
May 13 2026
Ukraine and Russia complete prisoner swap following May ceasefire
On May 15, Russia and Ukraine exchanged 205 prisoners each as part of the agreement linked to the May 9-11 ceasefire brokered by the U.S., reinforcing the temporary truce and sustaining market optimism about potential broader ceasefire agreements.
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย