Traders assign a 96.2% probability that China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before the end of 2026, reflecting the limited remaining window and assessments that the People’s Liberation Army continues to prioritize blockade and quarantine rehearsals over amphibious operations. Recent months have seen record Chinese coast guard deployments east of Taiwan and joint exercises focused on encirclement tactics, yet military purges have disrupted command structures and delayed readiness timelines into the 2030s according to Taiwanese defense reports. Ongoing U.S. arms support to Taipei and planned diplomatic engagements further reinforce deterrence. A sudden shift could still occur through miscalculation during heightened maritime patrols or disruptions tied to bilateral summits, though current patterns emphasize sustained gray-zone pressure rather than kinetic escalation in the near term.