Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMeta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
Meta's "Watermelon" model released by...?
$12,550 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
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93%
$12,550 Vol.
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$3,447 Vol.
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On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$12,550Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$12,550Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 30, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta’s Watermelon model, the successor to the April 2026 Muse Spark release (internally codenamed Avocado), remains in training as of early September 2026. Internal statements from Meta Superintelligence Labs chief Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model has reached parity with OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks while using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. This brute-force scaling approach underpins trader focus on whether Meta can deliver a competitive large language model amid its $125–145 billion infrastructure push. Key upcoming catalysts include potential October release timing, an imminent Muse Spark update with coding and agentic improvements, and any verified third-party benchmarks that could confirm or revise the internal claims before frontier models advance further.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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